Apologies for the delay in updating the results, but I was away at the weekend and had no access to the world of the web!
We had two selections today and were advised as follows:
Doncaster 16:25 – Zuider Zee
A couple of wins this year sees Selection as forecast favourite, in what looks a competitive race. However, there are a few negatives that make him opposable. Untried at Doncaster so course suitability is unknown. He has won over 1m 3f and his only attempt at today’s distance of a furlong further saw him finish well down the field (admittedly in a hotter race than this). Raised 5lbs from his penultimate start he carries 9st 6lbs today which is more weight than he has shouldered before. Trainer’s record with his 3YOs here is average but inferior to quite a few of today’s rivals. Speed figures are in decline and other horses have better recent form aswell as being proven over today’s trip. We recommend Lay subject to maximum odds of 5.0
Newmarket 17:40 – Watch Amigo
Previous wins over today’s distance sees this unexposed gelding from Walter Swinburn’s yard as forecast favourite in a tricky looking handicap. There are, however, a few negatives that mean he is opposable. Untried at track so course suitability is unknown. Has won at Class 5 but yet to perform at this level (was tried in a Class 3 last time out but was beaten 5 lengths). Raised 11lbs following win on penultimate start and carries a career high 9st 7lbs today. Trainer has had 1 winner from 13 starters with his 4YOs and above in the last 5 years. Cases can be made for several of his rivals and we recommend Lay subject to maximum price of 5.5
For the first time in this trial, both selections won, which does our finances no good at all!
Zuider Zee came first of 8 at a Betfair SP of 3.95 (ISP 5/2) giving us a loss of -£118 or -2.95 points.
Watch Amigo came first of 7 at a Betfair SP of 3.13 (ISP 2/1) giving us a loss of -£85.20 or -2.13 points.
These two results gave us a loss for the day of -£203.20 or -5.08 points at level stakes.
Not a great way to end the month, as our cumulative bank now stands at £1,984.40 giving us a loss to date of -£15.60 but oddly enough, still in profit on the level stakes basis at 0.31 points.
Let’s hope that August starts better than July ended!
We had one selection today and here is what was advised:
Market Rasen 16:15 – Yellow Flag
Nice horse from Jonjo O’Neill’s yard who having returned from a long absence, recorded 2 wins in June. There are a few negatives however, that mean he can be opposed today. He has been upped in Class taking on proven performers at this level. Has only run once at Market Rasen where he finished 9th of 16 runners (a Hurdles race some time ago) so his liking for the course is not known. His wins have come between 2m – 2m 2f so he is not guaranteed to enjoy the extra 2 furlongs today. He had to be rousted along by the Champion Jockey to win his last race and is now off of an Official Rating 18lbs higher than his comeback race in June. Speed ratings are also reducing. Trainer has a decent strike rate in Chase races here (although quite a few of his rivals do aswell). As I say, he is up against proven performers in this Class and every other horse in the race has won at this distance. We therefore recommend lay subject to maximum odds of 4.0
To atone for yesterday’s sins, the selection trotted up second of the 8 runners at a Betfair SP of 2.96 (ISP 7/4).
That gave us a profit for the day of £38.00 or 1 point at level stakes. That takes our cumulative bank back into the black as it is now standing at £2,022.40 giving us a profit to date of £22.40 or 1.31 points at level stakes.
Here is what Martin had to say about yesterday’s problems:
“A bad day yesterday where we suffered 2 short priced Losing Lays. I believe that we have suffered our first monthly loss to Level Stakes with -0.39pts and recorded just a small profit to our highest recommended Stake Plan. The 4 Losing Lays in the last 12 days or so obviously caused the problem but I believe that the 3 non runners (highest in a single month) and the struggle to find qualifying Selections in July didn’t help. Let’s hope for a better August.”
A great start to the month and long may it continue.