Frontline Horse Racing Form Reading Software

SUNDAY 18th JULY

OVERALL RESULTS OF PROOFED SELECTIONS FROM JULY 12th TO DATE.

NET RESULTS INCLUDE 5% DEDUCTION OF BF COMMISSION

QUALIFIERS: 5
LOST: 4 (Net 3.8 points profit)
WON: 1 @ BF lay price 6.8 (Net -5.8 points)
NET OVERALL P/L: -2 points
STRIKE RATE: 80%

MY PERSONAL OVERALL RESULTS FROM JUNE 28th TO DATE
LAYING TO MAXIMUM ODDS OF 6.0

QUALIFIERS: 27
LOST: 27 (Net 25.65 points profit)
WON: 0
NET OVERALL P/L: +25.65 points
STRIKE RATE: 100%

OVERALL RESULTS OF PROOFED SELECTIONS FROM JULY 12th TO DATE REGARDLESS OF LAY PRICE AVAILABLE.

NET RESULTS INCLUDE 5% DEDUCTION OF BF COMMISSION

QUALIFIERS: 7
LOST: 6 (Net 5.7 points profit)
WON: 1 @ BF lay price 6.8 (Net -5.8 points)
NET OVERALL P/L: -0.1 points
STRIKE RATE: 85.71%

Last but not least, for the purists. Proofed from July 12th to date. No tweaks. No selection disqualification for non runners or for price. Just the bare bones of selections from FL software standing alone:
5% deduction of BF commission included in Net figures.

SELECTIONS HIGHLIGHTED BY SOFTWARE: 12 (1 non runner)
LOST: 9 (Net 8.55 points profit)
WON: 2 @ BF lay price 6.8 and 3.0 (Net -7.8 points)
NET OVERALL P/L: +0.75 points
STRIKE RATE: 81.82%

The above will all be updated next Sunday.

Hope it is a great and profitable week ahead for everyone.

Cheers,
Bernard

In the interest of clarity (I hope), it crossed my mind that things can become confusing for anyone trawling the posts here on the FL blog.

Also, to make it easier to track results over time, I will try to post each Sunday evening in the following manner.

1st: The overall results of proofed selections to BST from 12th July. These are all up to a maximum BF lay price of 7.0

2nd: My personal results from 28th June. These are all up to a maximum BF lay price of 6.0

3rd: The overall results of selections regardless of price from July 12th. This will therefore include those selections that were formerly disqualified for being too high a price to lay on BF.

For each option it should be noted that there are 2 differentials applied to the “bare” FL software system settings. Firstly, the tweak regarding all time starts is applied (see previous posts for an explanation).

Secondly, a selection in a race suffering non runners may have been disqualified and this is subjective as it relies on my personal judgement and opinion. Someone else may well still play the selection having arrived at a different decision than myself based on the change to the ratings and change in competition to the selection brought about by non runner(s) in the race.

I think that is a fair test and the way to proceed.

Cheers,
Bernard

SUNDAY 18th JULY

Hi All,

Todays qualifying selection::::

LOVE IN THE WEST 16.50 REDCAR
Result: 6th of 7 runners at 7/2 industry s.p.

That is 28 losers from 29 selections for a LAY Strike rate of 96.55%

Cheers,
Bernard

Hi Pete,

Re: Ellies Image. Either you did not scroll down far enough on the selections page or one or more of your settings is incorrect. I notice that Richard (posted above) had the same selections. Check that the percentage selections at the bottom half of the settings page are all at 100.

Hope this helps,

Cheers,
Bernard

Hi Keith,

The give away “manual” system is a different system to the Dark Horse Criteria” within the software. That said, the manual system has a good strike rate too. I did use it prior for a few days prior to the release of the new software and it was okay. As pointed out by Sgt Philip, the manual system is labour intensive. The beauty of the software system is that once you have done your settings you have the daily selections (if any) at the click of your mouse.

Cheers,
Bernard

Hello Bernard,

Many thanks for taking the time to explain your approach in such great detail.
It is very much appreciated, will clarify things for other readers too and,
confirms we’re on the same wavelength.
I have had the same selections as you since you started your proofing on 12th.

Thanks again,
TonyH.

Hi Bernard

I didn’t manage to purchase the software, but tried using the manual (free) version yesterday, using Ross’s spreadsheet. This is fairly labour intensive and I only did one race, the 3.55 at Newbury.

The results gave Stimulation and Kingdom of Fife as the selections both in the same race, they finished 8th and 5th respectively of the 10 runners, again showing the “formula” does work!

Hello Bernard,

I have same settings as you and the others who post on here, but my software only selected the first two, but not Ellie’s Image!

Am puzzled….any thoughts?

Pete.

hi i do not have the software at the moment, but i am using the free manual one, the software must give different selections because Saturday my sole selection was kingdom of fife and at the moment i am on a run. so should the selections be the same.

Richard…thanks for your update, best of luck.

Bernard… Great to see your above explanations and help.

Cheers
MikeL

Cheers Bernard

I had the same 3

1. GREEN COMMUNITY
2 WICKED DAZE
3. ELLIE’S IMAGE

regards

Richard

For info only: Just double checked. Ellies Image was last of the 16 at ISP 6/1.

Hi all,

For those with the FL software to help confirm your settings are correct.

You would have had 3 selections highlighted today:

1. GREEN COMMUNITY (I rejected the race on the career starts tweak)
2 WICKED DAZE (I rejected the race on the career starts tweak)
3. ELLIES IMAGE (selection rejected on price)

1. and 3. both lost their races and 2. was a non runner.

Cheers,
Bernard

Saturday 17th July

Hi All,

Todays initial qualifying selection: ELLIES IMAGE 20.40 Haydock
was unavailable at less than LAY odds of 8.0 and therefore a no bet.

For interest only: It did lose, outside of the first 4 home of the 16 runners.

Ongoing results therefore remain at 27 losers from 28 selections for a LAY Strike rate of 96.43%

Cheers,
Bernard

Hi Tony H,

Thanks for your comments and I hope I can answer your queries.

I started paper trading June 28th. I only recorded the date, BF price, result and the usual plus or minus to the bank total and the strike rate in my spreadsheet. I still do just this but proof selections to BST before racing.

The proofing started July 12th and from then the only reason I have the horse names and race times is because I have the copy emails I proof to BST.

It had been of no interest to me to record any more info than I did when paper trading. This was on the basis that I would have discarded the system if it did not work.

It never crossed my mind to record race times, courses and horse names etc, for possible future investigation as to whether they may provide filter(s) to perhaps improve a failing system. Obviously, if I had created the system myself in the first place, that would be a totally different matter.

The tweak (as explained in a previous post) was culled from the FL free “manual” system purely on the basis that it was commonsense to apply it to Dark Horse Criteria as the reasoning for it was sound and relevant to use across both systems in my opinion.

I can say that the total selections up to a max of BF 6.00 from 28th June to 11th July inclusive was 24 and the average BF price was 4.99. Note that these are not necessarily BF starting prices. I mainly recorded what I would have got on at within the last 10 minutes pre race (6.0 or less). They all lost for a 100% strike rate.

I reject a race if any of the first 3 in the betting have less than 8 career race starts.

I also reject a race if non runner(s) affect the ratings and cause a significant deterioration of the level of competition against the selection. This one though is a matter of personal interpretation and may cause differences of opinion (and therefore results) between bettors for that reason.

Any selection not available at odds of 6.0 or less to LAY in the 10 minutes pre race on Betfair (my personal odds limit), is disqualified as a no bet. For the purpose of posts to BST the limit odds is 7.0

I guess you are thinking in terms of the main opponents to a selection being from the ratings differential as opposed to tissue price. The rule is that just the first three in the betting forecast must have at least 8 career race starts each. This can be easily checked by glancing at the racecard where a selection is highlighted. Your highlighted selection will auto qualify on 8 career starts as it is part of the criteria settings.

For the purposes of Dark Horse Criteria, the price is set at 6.0 in the settings area of the software. All criteria including the price you have set must be met for a selection to be highlighted at all. For example, if you set the price today at 4.0 and left all other criteria as they were yesterday then you would have no qualifying selections for today. The setting is <= this means less than or equal to and you input the figure your happy with.

The first three in the betting cannot extend into the red prices unless they are higher than the figure you have set as criteria for the system.

The betting forecast is downloaded into the software automatically as a part of the race card and is not updated at any time within the software.
If you have a set criteria of <=6.00 and the favourite is 8/1 then all runners prices will show in red. This is because they are all greater in price than your set criteria. You would have no highlighted selection in that race as the price criteria you have set fails.

I hope this helps.

Please feel free to ask any other questions. I will always help if possible.

Cheers,
Bernard

Hello Bernard,

Congratulations on your results and many thanks for sharing your tweak with us.

Everyone with the software is, I am sure, trying to emulate your results.
For my part, I have gone back and listed all the possible selections since the 28th. Unfortunately, I’ve got an idea that my eventual, qualifying lays won’t tally with yours. I’d just like to know where I may be going wrong.

Rather than asking loads of “what if” questions of you, which many prove annoying to other readers, may I just ask if you might be in a position to make available, by some means or other, a list, which I am sure you keep anyway, of the selections to date, together with your reasons for rejecting any of them, please?

Yes, I know it’s a big, big favour, should you wish to do so. But, it would help enormously in interpreting some of the comments in your blog which others, apart from myself, may find it difficult to agree with at present. That is, of course, assuming we all have the settings correct.

Just as a parting aside, do you also require the “two main opponents” to have 8 runs too and, do you ever allow the “first three in the betting” to extend into the red prices?

Many thanks in advance, though I will quite understand if the list would be too great an imposition, you have already gone above and beyond.

Keep up the good work, Bernard, and thanks for your help.

All the best,

TonyH

Hi Mike

I have recovered my subs and then some.

Laying to small stakes that is to £10.00 a point I am up 15 points so far

regards

Richard

Hi Richard

Great news…..can you say how you are using the software and what it is doing for you?….Are you running the free lay system?

Could you recommend it for a novice bettor to make a decent profit over it’s subs?

Many thanks
MikeL

Hi Commissioner,

I have been using it since the day it was launched.

I would not be without it now.

regards

Richard