Morning Commissioner sir,

A question on your web site. Is it just me or have you changed the page layout in the last week or so ?
Menu is now down the left hand side and postings on the right but most importantly I cannot find the section where constables post their questions or comments which is one of the most interesting and entertaining parts of the site.

There is the occasional contribution from readers on the “home” page, the latest one being from Betting System Guru regarding clickbank refunds but this is not the comprehensive list we had before where the comments were related to the system being assessed.

Cheers,

Hi Guys

Just a reminder about clickbank refunds. If you have purchased via clickbank you can go straight to them for a refund within 60 days. So if you have been scammed do not e-mail the scam artist for a refund. Go direct to clickbank.com, Click “help centre ” in the last tab on the right then under “customer help” in green on the left hand side, click “look up your order”.

Next input your customer order number, email address etc and press “submit”. You then need to click “get support” in the top left corner, next click the arrow at the end of the “select a reason” drop down menu and choose “more options”. The following screen will give you the refund request option and you can then choose a reason for your refund.

Normally, clickbank will confirm a refund within 48 hours.

Hope this helps.

Hi

Jachi……I am like you, I’ve tried the lot and I’ve always tried to keep an open mind but there is so much carp and misinformation out there!

The two lessons I have learnt over the years are;

Not to touch anything based on past results, you know the sort of thing…….Runners between 8 and 16, non handicap, good going only, the Jockeys called Fred and he’s wearing red underpants! The only certainties in betting are the odds are accurate and the results are random. All these guys do is look at a bunch of results and when they see a pattern that becomes their system. They fail to appreciate or don’t want to believe, that they’ve just picked out random results that collectively have beaten the odds.

Secondly, avoid any system that claims a high strike rate as the key to success, a couple of bad results and “its” on its way to the fan! Strike rate means absolutely nothing and people get too hung up on it. A system with a 10% strike rate has just as much chance of making a profit as one with 80%.

Anne,

Thanks, again.

I’m only betting where I can find favourable or comparative odds between bookies and Betfair, and those opportunities are few and far between.

Plenty of football this weekend, which is my only real area of expertise, but even then finding an opportunity based on odds AND based on likelihood of potential outcome is proving very difficult.

Not going to give up though.

Thanks a mil for the advice.
Matt.

Hi Matt. LOL It’s not funny really..the power of Sod’s Law is almost unbelievable!

Hi Matt,

Tennis!!! it is probably the worst sport for causing upsets It wouldn’t be my first choice, it is too unpredictable unless you really know your stuff.

“What markets work best” that depends on your expertise, how much do you know about certain sports, you must have some background info on why you think a team or player will loose, you can’t just do a random bet.

As for odds ranges, it varies, you can go two ways:

1=try to stay low because if you do hit a winner then you don’t have to worry about getting a chunk of winnings to add to your offload. MLB is really good for that as the odds are usually quite low and close together.

OR

2= try to go high, because the higher the odds the less chance of something happening, BUT if you win the bet you will then have a load of winnings to try and shift on top of the money you originally wanted to get rid of.

I personally do both, more often I go low though, but you must know about the sport, you just have to do your homework, there is no quick fix on this one.

Yes, it is harder than it looks, if it was easy everyone would stay at home and not bother working.

It is something you need to master, it requires time and patience. I think too many people on here are wanting a “quick fix” and just as Jachi says maybe they should get a part time job instead, you need to use your head when betting and more so if you want to make a living from it. I have said time and time again about patience and not to get greedy but still people don’t listen, you must stay one step ahead of the bookies at all times, think the way they think.

I really can’t give much more advice on this, my previous posts explained the process and the mindset, I think you either “get it” or you don’t.

Good Luck to all!

This ‘faking a loss’ is much more difficult than it sounds. I swear I couldn’t find so many winning selections if I tried. I’m almost thinking of running a tipping service…

Anne et al – do you bet tennis or football? I’m currently betting the outsiders in tennis, and a draw or outsiders in the footy. Currently I am loading my bookies accounts with profit I don’t want!!

What markets work best? And odds ranges? Help!!

Thanks for your assistance.
Matt.

Hi Jachi
If a systems average strike rate is say 86% and it is on a current winning run of say 34 and it has pushed the strike rate to 94% of course you have to expect a losing run to restore the balance.
The author of Betfair Miracle also had Ultimate Lay Betting which has been out for a while now, although they do share some similarities they are not the same. On to BFM it had a bad last week in April which meant it lost 12.61 points that month, also it had bad 9 days in the last part of August for this month you would have lost 1.69 points. Despite all that from the 28th December to 31st August you would still be 67.01 points in profit. It has actually underpeformed this year so the last third might even be better.
Of course what us reviewers try to do for you folk is where possible look for an edge and i pointed one out for BFM do not back Bonus selections unless they are also a main selection. That is what i use and i am showing a profit of 100.46 points in 8 months, sure April was still a losing month but least it was only 8.13 points. So do some systems make money the answer is yes , true its only a very small group.
All By The Book and GKM2 are by the same authors, ABTB can make alot of money although you do require a fair size bank, you have to look at returns against risk not on how much you actually staked. Out of the two GKM 2 is more hard work and makes less profit but i believe the number of selections could be reduced whilst maintaing the same or greater profit.
In fact the best thing to do with any method or system after you used it a while is to find ways to improve it, if you can do that and keep it to yourself then you will have that edge and value that Sgt Jon talked about in his posting.

Regards
Sgt Dave

Hi Sgt Jon
Some pretty sound advice especially about paper trading, BSG has mentioned this several times in the newsletter i just dont think the folks take it. One can understand that having purchased a system one would be eager to get started but unless you have money to burn be patient. Also not all systems are just a quick read some requiue more than that another area where folks slip up.

Regards
Sgt Dave

Hi
I’ve been using knighttrader, but I don’t see it reviewed anywhere on this site. I’ve tried everything and this is the first software I’ve ever recommended. It’s a Betfair betting bot and you should review it, it’s brilliant!

Jachi

Just to correct you on one of your comments…

The “system for Life” is actually called The Life System and has only been around for three years. It is not a SAW system but is more accurately described as a “waiting for a winner” system.

I have trialled both the original version that was released in 2007 and then helped James introduce various filters for the second more profitable method that greatly reduced the risk factor.

I ran trials for over six months and despite the heated debates the system caused on racing forums, found it to be profitable over that period.

The Life System requires a substantial bank because you may be backing up to 60+ horses every day BUT sensible use of a stop loss prevented wiping out the bank.

Of course there are many profitable systems out there and as Marc tried to explain in another thread, it is really your own systems that provide the edge you need to be successful long term.

I am presently trialling one of my own laying systems on another blog/forum which has produced 55 points in less than three weeks at an average Betfair SP 5.76. But I won’t be telling anyone what the selection process is as that is when everyone jumps on the bandwagon and the system will lose its edge.

Whether you are backing or laying, the secret to long term success is finding value in the bet not buying get rich quick systems that everyone is using thereby destroying any edge that existed.

You should monitor/paper trade any system for at least three months before risking your own money and that’s where Betting System Truths can help. The reviews on this site are truly independent and reviewers are not paid for their efforts or opinions. Few, if any, of the other review sites out there provide such an impartial service entirely free of charge.

Best of luck
Sgt Jon

It seems a shame that there are so many unanswered questions on this site. Not much I can do about it because I don’t know the answers to most of them myself. However, to Brian, who asked me how I came All By the Book so long ago (I started using it end of May) I can’t actually remember! I think I saw a review that said it looked really promising. I have also have quite a lot of stuff via Steve Davis, who I think is reasonably genuine. He does a huge number of systems and advices and is into all sports. Some are ok some not. I think All By the Book is one of his.
Someone mentions System for Life. This has been around donkey’s years. I did have a copy but never used it. I think it is a ’stop at a winner’ system which I don’t like.
Someone else asks about Lay the Ratings. I wrote in about this a month or so back. When it was recommended by Betting Truths it must have had a good run at the start of the flat. But it quickly became disasterous as the season progressed so maybe it works at certain times of the season because it sure as Hell hasn’t worked this last three months. I did consider using it to find winners because it identifies horses who have slipped down the handicap until they are on a winning mark.
The Betfair Miracle is another passed by this site. I’ve been using this for a long time. It was previously sold under another name so I have tried and tested it for probably two years. I am still using it which says something (like it is not as bad as most) but after every winning run there seems to come a couple bad losers and I think it is at the same point it was last May.
To the person who did not want to be rude and who asked whether any system wins I would have to say that, with the possible exceptions of All By The Book and The Golden Key Method (yes, Ive got that as well) there probably aren’t! These two require a lot of work for small returns but no risk to speak of.If you win too consistently the bookies close your account anyway. You’d probably be better off getting a part-time job. Over the past 50+ years I have tried thousands of systems and tipsters and discarded most without even trying them for real. I am sucker punter, but at least I know it. I have spent and lost a lot of m0ney, but never more than I could afford. I am still looking for the Holy Grail. I have to say that I do understand very little even now, like how is it if you back horse at random you will always lose and if you lay horses at random……….you will always lose. At the last you bet for fun not for profit.

thanx jon

hi
does any 1 use follow the fortune
cheers tomo

I have papertraded the LAY THE RATINGS system for nearly 40 days and I made a big loss. For today,30th August, the system made a hefty loss of more than 26 points at Betfair SP.

Tomo and Russ

The Life System is one of my favourite “waiting for a winner” systems and was created by……(drum roll)…..your webmaster James Fitzmaurice. I trialled the system for James on another review site before BST was born and was how I first met James online, almost three years ago!

Jon

Anne

Thank you for the advice. The US markets are definitely a bonus given the late starts, but I plan also on taking advantage of the European football season now that it is back up and running. Might also hit the US Open since there should be a lot of action there.

If I can learn how to do this and do it well I may be confident enough to up my stakes, worried about getting greedy though.

Thanks again for the response!!

Matt.

Thanks to Tony & Kris for your replies to my query.

Paul.

Tomo,

I believe the life system is still available, my brother purchased it and used it for quite a while and i can vaguely remember its operation. Its quite fun and simple to use and i think there is an updated sytem with filters etc! I wouldnt mind a little bit of feedback on ‘ the life system’
Any comments

Russ