Betfair Success Formula – Introduction 28/01/2011
Betfair Success Formula – Introduction
This is a football betting method from the author of Betfair-ATM and other sports betting strategies. It concentrates on European major league soccer matches and European cup matches. It is not for individual Country cup matches (such as the FA Cup).
The bets are placed before Kick Off with a major bet on the main Match Odds market and with an “insurance” bet on another market for the same match. You do need to watch the odds in-play, so that you can trade off your bets. The sales page says that with £100 bets and a starting bank of £1,000, you would have made over £1,000 profit in 34 days! So we’ll see how we do over a 56 day period and if it is successful we will see how it does over the extended 84 day period.
We’ll start with a £100 bank and bets of £10. Our target will be to make £100 profit. In other words, 100 point bank, with 10 point bets and a target of 100 points profit.
The Betfair Success Formula is a method or strategy for betting, rather that a strict system. Advice is given on the selection of matches, but nevertheless different users will possibly select different matches, due to when they are available to monitor the match or depending on personal choice of match. You are advised on the range of odds that a match should be offering and also to be selective and not have too many matches running at once. But due to the large number of matches being played on many days, it would be possible to run the formula in several matches over one day, especially at weekends. Perhaps a match at noon on a Saturday, then a couple of matches at 3pm and a couple of evening matches. So there is no shortage of potential matches to bet on and plenty of opportunities for those who have a regular 9 to 5 job.
You do need to monitor the match and you are advised to trade out your bets at half time. The PDF manual does say that if you are experienced and knowledgeable about football, you could wait until the 70th minute to trade off, so that you make more profit. For the purpose of this review I will close outstanding bets at half time, to eliminate that element of judgment.
I recommend using http://www.futbol24.com/Live/ if the match is not on TV. In my experience it notifies when goals are scored as quickly as any site that I’ve tried. Of course you would see when a goal is scored by watching the Betfair markets, but futbol24.com (and also betdevil.com) will also help you select your match to bet on. The manual recommends www.7m.cn for doing this, but I don’t find that site as easy to use.
Personally I found the PDF manual hard to read. It is a huge (8MB) PDF with many screen shots. But the screen shots are not clear and actually it is hard to read the figures in the screen shots. Also scrolling down, reading the explanatory text and scrolling back up to look again at the screen being referred to, is hard work. The text explanation is in clumsy English and makes it harder to understand the strategy than it should be. The method is clever, but actually very simple, so take your time, study the PDF and get a thorough understanding before running the method – that’s my advice.
Fairbot or Geekstoy are recommended to help with the trade-off calculation, personally I use BfExplorer for my other trading and this will also work fine to calculate your trade-off with this method. You can also do the trading in-play from the normal Betfair interface, but you will need to work out the trade-off bet yourself – it’s easy to do once you have practiced it.
There is a training video that shows the betting in progress and that helps a lot to understand how the strategy works. The sales page describes it as a low-risk strategy, but it should be understood that it is the choice of matches that makes it “low-risk”, the actual bets, being lays, carry a relatively high risk. If the match goes against your expectation you can be carrying a lay liability of 4 to 7 points for 1 point lays. So the trick is to try to pick matches where the actual game does not go against expectation. If the match goes against you, the advice is to wait until half-time to see if it sways back in your favour. I expect this will take some nerve. The author advises not to worry!
If you look at the sales page, you will see what I mean; out of 34 betting days there were 4 losing days carrying losses of between -55 and -100; compare these to the profits on winning days. So the success secret is to pick matches where these losing days are rare. So their strike rate of successful winning days was 30/34 or 88%. I’ll compare that to the strike rate that I get.
Currently the Betfair Success Formula costs £69.95 and is due to go up to £87. This is a one-off payment with nothing further to pay. There is no reason to suppose that sales of the formula will adversely affect the odds, as there is very high liquidity in the markets that the formula uses.