Layers Of Profit Mk II – Days 78 to 84

Hello constables,

Important notice

Layers Of Profit Mk II has now reached the end of it’s full 84 day trial period.  A final review will follow with enough statistics supplied that would make even Sgt Dave envious 🙂

Below you will find the last 7 days worth of trial data along with my musings.

Trial details

Lay on exchange (using Betfair here) with max odds of 4.0

Starting bank was 35 pts (£350) using 1 pt = £10

Days 78 to 84

Bank at start of day : 53.07 pts (£530.70)

Selections  :

Date Time Course Selection BFSP (Lay) Position Profit
27/09/2010 02:30 Bath Ninfea 4.2 6th/11 No bet
28/09/2010 04:45 Sedgefield Rebel Hunter 4.5 2nd/9 No bet
29/09/2010 05:55 Salisbury Hawridge Star 3.3 5th/10 0.95
30/09/2010 03:20 Warwick Lucy Limelites 4.4 5th/12 No bet
01/10/2010 03:50 Hexham Reckless Venture 4.4 2nd/8 No bet
02/10/2010 02:05 Epsom Plaisterer 4 4th/7 0.95
03/10/2010 03:30 Huntingdon Isn’t That Lucky 5.9 PU/9 No bet

Profit/Loss : +1.9 pts (+£19.00)

Cummultative Profit/Loss : +19.97 pts (+£199.70)

New Bank : 54.97 pts (£549.70)

To lay at 4.0 or not?

The figures above all reflect the maximum lay price of 4.0.

There have been a number of horses that have ended up as no bets due to their price starting off at more than 4.0 on the exchange.  So, looking at another angle, I have investigated the results if you were to request different odds before the off – the price would either be matched straight away, or if not, left to be matched in running.

Below is a table where I have selected certain odds and show the clear profit if you had selected those odds throughout the trial  :

Odds Pts Profit
1.5 7.85
2.1 14.8
2.6 20.75
3.2 30.09
3.6 32.39
4 34.57
5 39.32
Any 42.12
Main 19.97

For example, if you had tried to lay every horse at 3.6 (whether matched before the off, matched in play or even not matched at all), you would be 32.39 pts (£323.90) in profit.

To clarify, the ‘Any’ is just laying every horse at BFSP regardless of price, and ‘Main’ refers to how I am reviewing it, e.g. the BFSP has to be less than 4.0 at the start otherwise the horse is a no-bet.

Hope this isn’t confusing – different people prefer to bet in different ways and for those that like an in-running bet, or those that want to see how a system performs without price constraints, I thought it might come in useful.


Sgt Rob.

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