Layers Of Profit Mk II – Days 53 to 58

Hello constables,

Just to let you know I am proceeding with this to the full 84 day review period.  The system has been steadily making profits, and if you read the bit below about laying at 4.0 or not, I think the extended review period is well justified.

Trial details

Lay on exchange (using Betfair here) with max odds of 4.0

Starting bank was 35 pts (£350) using 1 pt = £10

Days 53 to 58

Bank at start of day : 47.14 pts (£471.40)

Selections  :


Date Time Course Selection BFSP (Lay) Position Profit
02/09/2010 03:05 Redcar Rowayton 3.7 5th/8 0.95
03/09/2010 03:30 Brighton Hellbender 3.25 4th/8 0.95
04/09/2010 02:00 Haydock Secrecy 4.25 2nd/8 No bet
05/09/2010 04:30 Fontwell Behind The Scenes 5.3 2nd/6 No bet
06/09/2010 03:00 Newton Abbot Sunset Boulevard 4.9 PU/9 No bet
07/09/2010 02:00 Goodwood Aragall WD No bet


Profit/Loss : +1.90 pts (+£19.00)

Cummultative Profit/Loss : +14.04 pts (+£140.40)

New Bank : 49.04 pts (£490.40)


To lay at 4.0 or not?

The figures above all reflect the maximum lay price of 4.0.  Just for information, if you had layed every selection regardless of BFSP, after day 58 you would be +30.79 pts (+£307.90) in profit rather than the +14.04 pts (+£140.40).

There have been a number of horses that have ended up as no bets due to their price starting off at more than 4.0 on the exchange.  So, looking at another angle, if for each horse you requested 4.0 on the exchange (if the price was lower at the time, it would be matched, if not leave to ‘keep’ at the race start), you would be +26.09 pts in profit (+£260.90) to level stakes.  Do the same with a figure of 5.0 and the profit increases slightly to +29.29 pts (+£292.90)

Cheers,

Sgt Rob.

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