Laying Summer Profits – Introduction
31st May 2011
Sergeant Tony-Introduces Laying Summer Profits
Following on from his earlier systems, Laying Autumn Profits, Laying Winter Profits and Laying Spring Profits, it seems only right and proper that we should complete the calendar by reviewing Laying Summer Profits from the author, Chris Castell.
Laying Summer Profits is a specialist lay betting system designed and tested on the UK Flat horse races during the three summer months of June, July and August. Laying Summer Profits is aimed specifically at the 2 year old flat horse racing market.
Punters are offered the choice to simply buy the Laying Summer Profits system outright for US$150 (which works out at £93.32 on PayPal’s current exchange rate) and they can then work out their own selections. The other option is to pay to get the selections sent to you each day by email for a fee of US$150 per month. The website actually says it costs £97 per month, but the PayPal exchange rate makes it slightly cheaper at £93.32 per month. You have the option to cancel at any time so that you just pay for each month as you wish.
For the initial investment in the Laying Summer Profits system, you receive the system manual in pdf format, which is clearly written and easy to follow, without all the usual ‘padding’ that many authors use.
There is also an instructional video on how to use the system, a tailored staking plan calculator with instructions on how to use the staking plan, complete with the fully detailed results for the last 5 years. Chris claims that the success of his seasonal systems lies in the fact that he is accounting for changing conditions throughout the year by only looking at the short term monthly or quarterly conditions. He also claims that the staking plan that he offers was able to increase the profitability of the system considerably, although we shall be using the level staking system of £100 per point for our review period. This is the one that Chris uses to record the results and he allows for the Betfair commission at 5%. On that basis, a winning £100 stake produces a profit of £95. This is the same basis that we used to review the other Laying Autumn/Winter/Spring Profits system and we will only use the published Betfair SP prices, rather than the odds that Chris is able to get using his own automated betting software.
Here are some of the results that the author claims:
Longest Losing Bet Streak – 5
Longest Winning Bet Streak – 20
Average Laying Odds – 3.42
Average Selections Per Month – 37
Average Successful Strike Rate – 76.79%
The system only looks at 2 year old races, as the author believes that 2 year old horses offer the lay bettor a great opportunity in making consistent profits. This is often because these horses have little known history and statistics to base an evaluation on. Horses don’t begin racing until they are at least 2 years old, so represent a danger to backers generally. However, often, this danger is not represented by the available odds, which so often are way too low, and give the lay bettor a value betting opportunity.
The system attempts to look for value. Value (for the lay bettor) is where the odds of a selected horse have been reduced so that they are lower than they should be. To find value, the system looks for what the mass average punters are looking for to back a horse, but we are going to lay it. The system also factors in some criteria that the average punters don’t look at, which works against the horse’s chances of winning. The system looks for a horse that is likely to be a value bet coupled with more obscure criteria that goes against the horse’s chance of winning.
The author claims that it takes about 5 to 10 minutes to find your selections for the day and recommends that you look at the video once you have read the system rules in the manual. That will show you the process to take that makes the selection process so quick.
The ease of use of the system means that you can find your selections and place your bets first thing in the morning, before you go to work for example. The author recommends that you place your bets one minute before the off, to ensure that you keep to the recommended odds range. Obviously, if you do want to place your bets in the morning and you can’t be at a computer at the time of the off, you will need to use an automated betting system, referred to as a ‘BOT’. There are a few bots around at a reasonable cost and a couple of free ones too. See the forums for the more popular offerings.
I am obviously not going to publish the rules here, but the first few define the markets and do not give the game away:
We are only interested in UK Flat racing during the summer months of June, July and August, so we exclude any Irish racing, hurdles, chases or NH Flat races.
We are only interested in 2 YEAR OLD RACES
We will consider all going EXCEPT Heavy, Firm or Hard
The lay odds must be between 2.10 and 5.00 on Betfair.
I hope that it all works out and look forward to the review.