Total Football Trading The Paper Chaser – Final Review Summary

23/01/2012

Sgt Colin Reviews Total Football Trading The Paper Chaser

Hi Bloggers, Inspector Colin here, with the final review of Total Football Trading The Paper Chaser

Total Football Trading The Paper Chaser is one of the trading strategies included in the Total Football Trading package. This is a pre kick off football match trading strategy, which requires a professional, disciplined approach, utilising a stop loss strategy. It only works in respect of evening games, so is only applicable for mid-week football.

So how did it do – and how did I find the system to use?

1. Results:

These were very good! After a dodgy start, when I was getting used to the trading approach, the trading methodology gave me consistent gains.

After 3 days I’d made 3 trades (with an initial 100 point liability on each), and lost 9 points (from my starting bank of 1000). That was the low point as I tasted some relatively early success, and ended 123.45 points up at the end of the trial (after charging 5% Betfair commission) from 85 trades.

I only had 11 losing days out of the 36 days I traded on,

I had 48 winning trades (with 9 closing out at break-even) – a success rate of 58%

The best trade made 13.69 points, the worst (day 2) lost 6.86 points.

I found that I was similarly successful with both back & lay initial trades, and uncannily placed almost identical numbers of each type (43 back bets, 42 lay bets, gaining 57 & 63 points respectively). The most successful trades were where I initially backed teams at between evens & 5/4, or where I initially layed teams at between 1.3 & 1.5. However, the sample sizes were small, and these results are therefore not statistically that meaningful.

2. Ease of Use

2.1 Time involved

This is the downside of the approach, in that to use this system effectively, you need to have regular access to Betfair from early in the morning until kick off time in the evening. If you can’t access Betfair regularly in the morning, this isn’t a system for you! You need to be disciplined in ensuring that you don’t trade when you can’t be sure you can monitor the odds movements (unless you have access to a bot to apply a stop loss if the odds move against you). Unless you are working from home, that makes it difficult for most people, although you can access Betfair via a smartphone.

You also have plenty of days when there aren’t many matches to select from, and you have to make sure you don’t “force” selections because you haven’t had a bet for a couple of days.

2.2. Stop Loss

As highlighted above, the approach includes applying a stop loss to the trades. The manual provides a recommended stop loss of 6 “ticks” per trade, but I found that that was too simplistic and would have resulted in significantly different risks being taken depending upon the odds. I devised my own table to identify the stop loss – which still ended up exposing me to varying risks (laying short priced favourites could be costly) but was an improvement on the single target.

I tried to use the GHB bot to automatically apply the stop loss. I initially had problems with that, and although it ended up working, I found that I could usually apply the stop loss manually effectively through regular monitoring.

2.3 Enjoyment

I enjoyed using this system, albeit I was trading to very small stakes and therefore taking minimal risks (just to test out the approach).

3. Risk

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Sgt Colin – Total Football Trading The Paper Chaser