Planet Horseracing – Day 25
Hi Bloggers
An unusual day in that we had TWO selections. Here is what we were advised:
Carlisle 15:00 – More Than Many
2 wins from 3 careers starts sees this colt from Richard Fahey’s yard as forecast favourite. There are, however, a few negatives to oppose him. Untried at Carlisle so course suitability is unknown. Raised 12lbs for his last win (which was in April last year) he carries 9st 13lbs today which is almost a stone more than previous biggest weight. Has not been seen on track for 15 months which suggests he’s had some problems. His form, wellbeing and fitness and therefore unknown. Trainer has a good record in these races here (although others have better ones) and favourites aged 4YO+ in handicaps at the track do have a low strike rate. The concern is that connections may have been very patient and he is tuned to run well. However, there are a couple of rivals that look to have his measure and we recommend lay subject to maximum odds of 5.5
Pontefract 15:15 – Northside Prince
A 2nd placed finish in April along with the booking of Kieren Fallon is likely to see Selection go off short here. However, there are a few negatives that mean he is opposable. Still a maiden, his only previous visit to Pontefract saw him beaten 15 lengths. His Official Rating has remained fairly consistent between 65 & 68 (currently 67) but he carries 10st today which is a career high. Not run for 66 days so fitness and form are taken on trust (it’s also worth noting that his few good performances have been after a recent outing). Trainer’s strike rate here is OK but Kieren Fallon rides for the first time. Looks competitive where cases can be made for several runners. We recommend lay subject to maximum odds of 5.0
We had unusual results as well! The first selection at Carlisle rolled in 7th out of 13 runners but finished at a Betfair SP of 14.06 (ISP 8/1) – it was around 5.50 when I layed it this morning! The second selection at Pontefract did not read the instructions and finished 1st of the 11 runners at a Betfair SP of 5.54 (ISP 9/2). We therefore ended up with a profit of £38.00 on the first selection and a loss of £181.60 on the second selection.
Overall that left us with a loss for the day of -£143.60 or -3.54 points at level stakes. Our cumulative bank started at £2,000 and now stands at £2,073.6 giving us a profit for the trial to date of £73.60 or 2.39 points at level stakes.
Let’s hope for a better result tomorrow
Kind regards
Tony
Written by on Jul 25th, 2010. Comment. 
Passed 5/5 Stars
- All
By The Book Rating:
Passed 4.5/5 Stars
- Bonus Bagging Rating:
From LTO Review
- Betfair ATM Rating:
- Golden Key Method 2 Rating:
- Layers Of Profit Rating:
- Champion Draws Rating:
- Michaels Place Lay Formula Rating:
- ABSX System X-IV Rating:
Go on! Have your say!
Comments on Planet Horseracing – Day 25
I have only just got in from work and read the post about the odds being outside the ‘recommended’ level, so apologies for not responding sooner.
I have nothing substantial to add to what Martin and Kris have said. I have used the Betfair SP from the outset of the trial, as it is probably the only fair way to assess the system. In this particular case, the price of the losing horse drifted out, but in other cases it will drift in, as Kris noted. On the other hand, as Martin observed, the price can also do this with horses that win races, so you win some and lose some. The website also only uses the Betfair SP, so is a good place to make a reasonable comparison of the system over a longer period of time than this review, as they have results going back to February.
I hope this makes sense, but let me know if you need any further information.
Regards
Tony
Hi tony,
the author recommends early prices, and as Sgt. Tony indicated above, when the lay was posted it was trading at the 5.50 mark,so he jumped on it. It was obviously friendless in the market, and drifted out, which always gives you a good feeling just before the off. Of course it doesn’t always work out that way, if you take the early offer and then it shortens drastically, you could be biting your finger-nails back to the elbow – as a lot of the time there could well be a good reason for the late money.
Rgds,
Kris
Hi tony,
Thanks for the post. Apologies for the delay in responding but have only just seen it. I believe Sgt Tony is basing his results in the same we do on the website so I will answer if I may.
We post our Selections (which are all Racing Post Forecast Favourites) with a recommended price maximum BUT we ask that subscribers have their own Members Individual Price Criteria and lay at a maximum figure that they are comfortable with. All we advise is that Members remain consistent and not lay above a certain figure sometimes and not others as this will likely lead to losses over the long term. We also post our results based on Betfair SP (Staking Plans include the 5% commission) as some Members will have different price levels and will lay Selections at different times during the day. We also include losing lays that are outside our recommended price maximum. This is the only way that we can give a consistent & transparent return on our Selections.
The lowest traded price on More Than Many was 4.31 (admittedly for small money).
You will also see that Northern Prince had a Betfair SP of 5.49 which was outside of our recommended price maximum (5.0) and of the £44,000 matched on him less than £1000 was inside our maximum recommended price. However, for consistency we still included it as a losing lay as it would be wrong not to.
Thanks again for the post.
Martin
hi how can this be classed as a winning lay from above
“we recommend lay subject to maximum odds of 5.5″
yet betfair sp was nearly treble this at 14.05