Another selection today:
Epsom 15:20 – Epic
A winner of 3 of his last 4 races and with the services of K Fallon, this Mark Johnston gelding is forecast favourite. There are, however, a few negatives that mean he can be opposed. His wins have all come in class 5 & 6 races and his last 6 attempts at this level have seen him not reach the frame. Only previous outing at Epsom saw him finish 6th (accepted that was his racecourse debut) so suitability of this unique track is unknown. His Official Rating of 80 is now at a career high. Trainer’s strike rate in this age group at the track is low and jockey has never ridden him before. The race looks fairly open.
Well, I have to accept part of the blame by saying that we were on for our tenth winning lay! The selection duly proved me wrong and came in first of the seven runners at a Betfair SP of 5.15 (ISP 7/2).
That gave us a loss for the day of -£166.00 or -4.15 points at level stakes (ouch!). Our cumulative bank has just dropped into the red with a balance of £1,978.00 giving us a loss to date of -£22.00 or -0.55 of a point at level stakes.
Let’s hope for a return to good fortunes tomorrow.
Passed 4.5/5 Stars
We had another selection today (Sunday 5th September):
York 17:20 – Mistoffelees
Recent good runs see Luca Cumani’s colt as forecast favourite here. There are however, a few negatives that mean he can be opposed. Upped in Class today, he takes on proven performers at this level. Never run at York so course suitability is unknown. Official Rating is now up to 78 which is a 5lb rise for a 1 & 1/4 length win. Trainers record in this age group here is average but favourites in 4YO+ handicaps at the track have a low strike rate.
Despite all the hype, the selection must have had an off day. Even though it went off as the favourite, it came in 14th of the 14 runners at a Betfair SP of 4.51 (ISP 3/1). That gave us a profit for the day of £38.00 or 0.95 of a point at level stakes. Our cumulative bank now stands at £2,144.00 giving us a profit to date of £144.00 or 3.60 points at level stakes.
I am, no doubt, in danger of tempting fate by noting that this is the ninth successful lay in a row for the system, so I look forward to celebrating the tenth one! I have already heard from the author that there are no selections for tomorrow, Monday, so we will have to wait a while for our tenth lay success.
Passed 4.5/5 Stars
We had another selection today:
Ripon 17:20 – Broadway Dancer
Makes handicap debut here today and is Racing Post forecast favourite. However, there are a few negatives that mean she can be opposed. Still a maiden, she is less exposed than a couple of rivals who have good handicap form. She has been pitched between 7f and 9f and today tries just under 10f which indicates connections are struggling to find her ideal distance. She has put in some decent efforts but is untried on today’s Good ground. Official Rating is 70 and she carries 9st 7lbs which is more weight than she has shouldered previously. Speed figures are also reducing. Trainers strike rate in this age group is average and jockey rides for the first time today.
The selection duly obliged and came in sixth of the seven runners at a Betfair SP of 7.86 (ISP 11/2). That gave us a profit for the day of £38.00 or 0.95 of a point at level stakes and means that our cumulative bank is now back in the black at £2,030.00 – giving us a profit to date of £30.00 or 0.75 of a point at level stakes.
Let’s hope for more of the same tomorrow.