Left feeling pretty hard done by today. I feel like we were probably on the right horse in both races but yet come away with nothing.
Lucy the Painter was backed from 12s into 4s but blew the start by 5l’s. She has never done this before so nothing we can do about it. This happens it’s racing but the gamble certainly suggested we were on the right horse.
Inexes was then denied a clear run and finished with the jockey sat up on the bridle in 4th. He has cruised into the race and only had 1l to make up with the winner when he got sandwiched in between the 1st and 3rd. The jockey has had to ease off and let him drift home in his own time.
Annoying but again nothing we can do about it. We move on…
Tips for Tuesday 7th November, 2017
04.00am Flemington (Melbourne Cup) –
Marmelo 7-1 Paddy Power and Betfair 6places unp -£10
Johannes Vermeer 10-1 Skybet 6places FIN 2ND @ 11/1 + £18.75
Max Dynamite 12-1 PaddyPower and Skybet 6places FIN 3RD @ 14/1+ £22.50
Rekindling 10-1 PaddyPower and Skybet 6places WON @ 12/1 + £85
All 0.5pts E/W
The Melbourne Cup is a race I target every year, we went very close two years back with Max Dynamite and I’ve actually backed the winner 3 times since I started betting. I like the race because it reminds me of the Chester Cup, a handicap which makes prices and weights very interesting but filled with top graded performers who we know should run their race. I have been through the race a total 5 times and the first decision I have made is that I am happy to take Almandin on. He carries a lot more weight than last year and his 4th last time out was very laboured, enough to put me off given his current price. I have sided with four selections, Marmelo, Johannes Vermeer, Max Dynamite and Rekindling.
There is always a story with The Melbourne Cup and if Marmelo was to win it would be a very fitting story for Hughie Morrison. His name has been tarnished this year by drug allegations for which he has denied all charges. He is a fantastic trainer and lack of help he has received from leading organisations in Britain has been quite frankly awful. He has Marmelo in here and he must have huge claims, he is a bit shorter than I’d like price wise but still we can get a nice each way price about him and I simply can’t leave him out. He has been in terrific form this season, winning a group 3 at Chantilly beating Bateel, finishing 2nd at Saint-Cloud beaten by Talismanic who just a few days won the Breeders Cup turf and he then won a group 2 at Deauville beating Desert Skyline who next time out won the Doncaster Cup. He has had a prep run over in Australia and the performance was very eye-catching. 2nd last for most of the race he made good late progress over a trip too short in the Caulfield Cup. Drawn stall 9 tomorrow he has a good draw to work with and Hugh Bowman keeps the ride so clearly he thinks Marmelo will go close. Ideally I’d like to see him ridden closer to the pace as he has all the stamina in the world. I am fairly confident he will finish in the frame if not more.
Johannes Vermeer is interesting in here, The Melbourne Cup can often turn into a sprint and Johannes Vermeer possesses a great turn of foot. He has been running well over in Australia all season and his form is top notch. The only question mark is the trip but I honestly think it won’t be an issue. Stall 3 really is a massive bonus, he will get all the cover he wants from this draw and should be able to save ground at every turn. The longer he travels and is held on for the better because once asked his turn of foot will allow him to quicken very easily past the more stout stayer’s in this field. I think this race could be perfect for him and as long as he gets luck in running I think he will go very close.
Max Dynamite is a risky selection but a selection I simply can’t leave out after he should really of won this race two years ago. Since that day he has admittedly been very lightly raced, he never seemed to be in form last season however after a reappearance run over hurdles he was dropped in grade back on the flat this season and simply destroyed his rivals. Dropping him down in grade could have been a master-stroke by Mullins as he now has all the confidence in the world going into this race. That race was in August and he was immediately sent out here after it, he’s had a long time to get himself over the trip and the reports are that he is working incredibly well in his prep. I just get the impression that this has been the plan since he was beaten in it two years ago and from stall 2 he pretty much has everything in his favour. Factor in that he is 2lb lower in the weights than two years ago and that Zack Purton has been booked riding 8-7 which is a weight he very rarely does.
Rekindling looks chucked in at the bottom of the weights in here. His form stacks up so well, top graded form and yet as a three year old he sneaks into this handicap at the bottom of the weights. We have already seen this year that the staying three year olds have an edge over their elders and this horse looks made for The Melbourne Cup. He has the speed and turn of foot to win a group 3 over 10f’s, finish 4th in the Dante over 12f’s and also has the staying power to finish 4th in this year’s St Leger when given a mountain to climb from the back of the field. Stepping up to 2m’s will suit and from stall 4 he has a very good draw to work with. He possesses a very good turn of foot and of such a low weight he could easily make a mockery of his handicap mark in this field. My only concern is the trip over here as a three year old however that’s a risk worth taking.
4.50 Wolverhampton – Top Offer 13-2 Paddy Power and Betfair
0.5pts E/W won 9/1 + £64
Top Offer was unlucky not to win last time out in a better race than this. He was widest of all into the turn for home and still came home very strongly to beaten a fine margin. The handicapper has leniently left him on the same mark and pitched into this easier race with the talented George Wood on board he should go very close. He last win came over this C and D of 61 and today he races of 55. Clearly has a huge chance and with a good ride should win this nicely.