Hi Bloggers
Introduction plus Day 1 and Day 2 The Dutching Diamond System
The dutching diamond system comes in the form of an 18 page e-book and surprisingly does not have the first 12 pages explaining how to open a betfair account! A refreshing change from the usual format.
The book is clearly set out and straightforward to read and understand.
Now to the system. As the name suggests the dutching diamond strategy is to back more than one horse in a race using the “dutching” method. Basically you back upto 3 horses and spread the risk, to obtain a “guaranteed profit”, if one of the horses wins. However, there is still a risk that all 3 could lose!
To use this system a subscription to racingpost.com will be required, or you will need to buy the Racing Post on a daily basis, unfortunately the information required is not freely available. This particular dutching method is based on trends and there are strict criteria relating to these trends.
The method can be used on either National Hunt or Flat Racing (including all weather) and is therefore an all year round system. Certain types of race are excluded, which limits the number of selections on a daily basis and there is a minimum and maximum number of runners allowed in each race. For me, the selection process looks time consuming and the author does provide a telephone service on a daily basis naming the selections for the day, you simply need a pin number to log in. (Note. This is not a premium rate number, calls cost around 20p a minute from a BT Landline and selections are provided swiftly, without any waffle! )
Pages 7 to 16 of the e-book contains the full system results from March 2009 through to October 2009, disappointingly the profit or loss figures are not included simply the winning horses with SP and the word “Lost” if the system didn’t produce a winner. There are 4 options in the e-book that show you how to recover from a loss, the recommended option is to attempt to win back your loss (stake) and the required profit in the next race, I will try this option and base the resulting profit/loss on this strategy.
There is a staking system included within the e-book which although not complex is a little long winded and rather than go through this each day, I have shown how it works below with the day 1 selections and results. A bank of 1000 points is recommended and the initial aim is to increase that bank by 1%, we will use £1000 for the trial and aim to make £10 per race.
Day 1 (Jan 7, 2010) only one qualifying race the 2.10 at Southwell (I have used the author’s telephone selections, to avoid any discrepancies)
Selections:
Gold Party 2nd Sp 7/4
Cosimo de Medici W Sp 5/2
Honest Broker Unp Sp 9/4
The staking calculation is as follows, we need to find the winning chance each horse has as below:
Using 100 as the total percentage figure to calculate profit margin:
Gold Party 2nd Sp 7/4 100/2.75 = 36.36
Cosimo de Medici W Sp 5/2 100/3.5 = 28.57
Honest Broker Unp Sp 9/4 100/3.25 = 30.77
Profit Margin = 100 less (36.36 + 28.57 + 30.77) = 4.3%
The recommended profit margin for each race is 30% , which will reduce the stakes, however for the purpose of the trial I will use ALL profit margins.
The next step is to calculate the race turnover as follows and then find the appropriate stakes to gain our £10 profit:
Using the profit margin of 4.3% we require the following turnover:
Turnover £10 x £100 ÷ 4.3 = £232.56
Stake required £232.56 x 36.36 = £66.44
£232.56 x 28.57 = £84.56
£232.56 x 30.77 = £71.56
———
Therefore, total stake for the race £222.56
Actual bets required Potential Profit
Gold Party 2nd Sp 7/4 x £84.56 £232.54 – £222.56 = £ 9.98
Cosimo de Medici W Sp 5/2 x £66.44 £232.54 – £222.56 = £ 9.98
Honest Broker Unp Sp 9/4 x £71.56 £232.57 – £222.56 = £10.01
Cumulative Profit Day 1 +9.98 points
For the rest of the trial I will not lay out all the calculations, but simply provide selections and profit or loss figures, however I did think it was worth showing you how the calculations worked in the first instance.
Day 2 Friday 08 Jan 2010
No Qualifying Selections Today
That’s all for now
Philip
