Hi Bloggers
Well, we got a selection again today, but within minutes of it being sent out it was declared a non-runner! Just for the record, I thought you might like to see what they selected and why.
“Folkestone 19:35 – One Hit Wonder
A good 3rd at Goodwood last month sees Selection as forecast favourite in a weak looking handicap. However, there are a few negatives that make him opposable. Still a maiden, he has not run at Folkestone before so suitability of course is unknown. After 3 initial All Weather runs, he has only encountered Good ground when running on turf so there are question marks as to whether he will enjoy today’s forecast Good to Firm going. He has been raised 2lbs for the recent placed effort. Seb Sanders takes the ride for the first time and Trainers strike rate at the track reads zero wins from 14 attempts in the last 5 years. As we say, a weak race so a bit more competition would have made this a more confident Lay. However, a couple of rivals look to have good chances here and we therefore recommend Lay subject to maximum odds of 4.5″
As I said, it will not run, so there will be no action for us today.
Just to finish off, I would like to add one point to the debate on the 10% liability staking issue. Can I just clarify that you would not lose your bank in 10 losing bets. Mathematically, you take 10% of your bank as the liability each time, so a £100 bank would give you 10% x £100 = £10. If you lost, your bank would now be at £90 so your liability stake for the next bet is 10% x £90 = £9. If you lost, your bank would be £81 so your next next liability stake would be 10% x £81 = £8.10 and so on and so on. Even after 20 losing bets in a row your bank would still be at £12.16!
I am not adding anything to the rights or wrongs of the arguments, as James has quite rightly moderated on that subject, but it is important that the readers do understand the mathematics of the equation for future use.
Onto tomorrow…..
Kind regards
Tony
