Zero Risk Trader Introduction
17th August 2013
Sgt Flavell – Introduces Zero Risk Trader
Hi bettingsystemtruths.com readers,
This is my first of hopefully many reviews for bettingsystemtruths.com.
By way of a personal introduction I am a mathematician with a lifelong interest in predictive systems, including those for gambling, and the use of computers to develop, test and automate these systems.
Over the years I have seen, developed and reviewed many systems and thankfully continue to come across some real nuggets, long may this continue.
Zero Risk Trader comes from the same team as the Five Star ‘All By The Book’ system and the author suggests that it is able to return £5000 – £12000 per year as a conservative estimate.
Refreshingly, despite it having similar characteristics, the System isn’t based on the classic arbitrage model or reliant on free bets, offers or sign-on bonuses. Instead this System is based on a method for identifying zero risk profitable trades in particular type of bet which can be found either by using the approach described in the manual or generated using a computer program that can be purchased in addition to the manual.
As well as identifying the profitable trades the software will also identify the bookmakers where the bets should be placed, the prices of all the bets involved in the trade and a facility to enter how much you want to bet (on the main bet) which will result in all the other amounts to be bet in the trade and the profit being recalculated.
All the bets in the trade can be placed at the same time so there is no need to wait for some predicted price movements.
The System is targeted at the UK and Irish horse racing markets although the method is generally applicable and could be used on other markets.
The bets will need to be placed with the on-line (traditional) bookmakers and the exchange(s) so a number of accounts will be needed.
Both the manual and the additional program that generates selections require a key from the System’s owners. These keys were sent quickly by return and I entered them in eager anticipation. I wasn’t disappointed, the manual doesn’t have the usual beginners guide to Betfair but instead gets quickly to the point, clearing describing how a trading opportunity exists in a particular type of bet, how to identify this opportunity and construct a risk free combination of bets to profit from this opportunity.
In order to operate the system using just the manual, the user will need to scan the market (UK and Irish horse racing) just after mid-day or 1 hour before the first race starts in order to identify potential opportunities and then, for each of these potential opportunities, calculate whether an zero risk profitable trade exists.
I imagine that, if the user chooses to make the selections manually, in an effort not to miss a trade, this process could take some time, possibly 30 or more minutes. Over time the user will become quicker.
Alternatively, and I imagine that most users will choose this option, the computer program, which can be bought with the manual, can generate the selections in seconds.
I intend to review both the computer generated trades and those found by examining the markets manually.
Once a trade has been identified it should take minutes to put the bets on.
Given that the System is zero risk, the value of the system is dependent on how many trades this system produces and what profit there is in these trades. Whilst the author states that a return of £5000 – £12000 per year is a conservative estimate this review will need to confirm that.
The manual on its own costs £149.95
With an additional cost of £139.95 for 12 months access to the software or £99.95 for 6 months access.
The manual with 3 months access to the software costs £199.95
My understanding is that renewal of the software licence will cost an additional £139.95 for 12 months or £99.95 for 6 months access.
Payment by PayPal.
There is no refund or guarantee of performance.
You will need:
1. A ‘decent computer’ with web connectivity, sufficient to run the software and browser bookmakers and the exchanges web pages. My experience is that the program isn’t particularly demanding and can process the day’s horse racing markets in seconds on my common or garden Windows 7 PC.
2. Accounts with the exchange(s) and other on-line (traditional) bookmakers.
3. A starting bank.
The manual advises that the trades are placed as close to race start as possible. The trades could be placed hours before but because the trade could be affected if, for example, a non-runner was declared, an early trade would potentially be at risk. Also, closer to the start there may be more liquidity.
With experience a user should be able to identify potential trades in the morning and in a few minutes place these trades just before the race. Also the user could, during the day, update their list of potential trades which could change with price movements.
Staking Plan and Betting Bank
The manual suggests a Betting Bank of £1000 with £500 held in a Betfair account and the other £500 distributed among bookmaker accounts.
Being ‘zero risk’ this bank is not at risk.
It is up to the user to scale dependent on the returns they want to achieve.
With a ‘zero risk’ trade the temptation is to, dependent of the liquidity, go ‘all in’ on every trade. Why not ?
The manual warns against this. Many small trades distributed across many bookmakers will enable you to ‘fly under the radar’.
There is an interesting section in the manual about how and why winnings should be funneled out of the bookmaker accounts and collected via the exchanges.
With respect to this review, each single trade consists of a number of separate bets, the main bet will be at flat stakes, the amount of the associated trade bets will be dependent on this flat stake and the price.
This review will report the (1) flat stake amount, (2) the profit and current bank size and (3) the return on investment (ROI). This ROI measure will mean that the total amount used in the trade, including the associated trade bets, is factored into the review.
Whilst I will record which horse the trade was made on and in which race, I will not publish it. This information is not needed by the reader and could expose the system.
The prices will be those taken when the trade is made.
I work ‘9 to 5’ (at least!), during which time I can’t trade so most of my work on this review will in the morning, evening, weekends and holiday.
Initially I will ‘paper trade’. At some stage in the review I will use real money so that I can report on the mechanics of working these trades.
I intend to post a daily update. Warning will be given if, for whatever reason, this is not possible.
I shall review this system for 56 days with the option to extend it to 84 betting days.
Thank you for your time and I hope you enjoy the review.