Layers Of Profit Mk II – Days 67 to 74
Hello constables,
Trial details
Lay on exchange (using Betfair here) with max odds of 4.0
Starting bank was 35 pts (£350) using 1 pt = £10
Days 67 to 74
Bank at start of day : 51.17 pts (£511.70)
Selections :
| Date | Time | Course | Selection | BFSP (Lay) | Position | Profit |
| 16/09/2010 | 06:05 | Pontefract | Glenmuir | 5.2 | 3rd/12 | No bet |
| 17/09/2010 | 05:30 | Newbury | Oldrik | 4.3 | 1st/10 | No bet |
| 18/09/2010 | 04:30 | Ayr | Kings Gambit | 3.15 | 2nd/7 | 0.95 |
| 19/09/2010 | 03:30 | Plumpton | Tignello | 4.8 | 6th/10 | No bet |
| 20/09/2010 | 05:20 | Leicester | Shesells Seashells | 4.7 | 6th/14 | No bet |
| 21/09/2010 | 04:20 | Folkestone | Duster | 3.55 | 3rd/7 | 0.95 |
| 22/09/2010 | 04:45 | Perth | Steel Magnate | 5.1 | PU/8 | No bet |
| 23/09/2010 | 04:40 | Fontwell | Sam Cruise | 5.4 | 2nd/9 | No bet |
Profit/Loss : +1.90 pts (+£19.00)
Cummultative Profit/Loss : +18.07 pts (+£180.70)
New Bank : 53.07 pts (£530.70)
To lay at 4.0 or not?
The figures above all reflect the maximum lay price of 4.0.
There have been a number of horses that have ended up as no bets due to their price starting off at more than 4.0 on the exchange. So, looking at another angle, I have investigated the results if you were to request different odds before the off – the price would either be matched straight away, or if not, left to be matched in running.
Below is a table where I have selected certain odds and show the clear profit if you had selected those odds throughout. Also, as a result of a comment from Lawrence (thank you for your post), I have added some strike rate information :
| Odds | Pts Profit | Matched Bets | Winning Lays | Strike Rate % |
| 1.5 | 6.9 | 21 | 12 | 57.14 |
| 2.1 | 13.85 | 34 | 25 | 73.53 |
| 2.6 | 19.8 | 45 | 36 | 80.00 |
| 3.2 | 25.34 | 56 | 47 | 83.93 |
| 3.6 | 26.69 | 60 | 51 | 85.00 |
| 4 | 27.92 | 64 | 55 | 85.94 |
| 5 | 30.77 | 70 | 61 | 87.14 |
| Any | 32.62 | 72 | 63 | 87.50 |
| Main | 18.07 | 36 | 31 | 86.11 |
For example, if you had tried to lay every horse at 3.6 (whether matched before the off, matched in play or even not matched at all), you would be 26.69 pts (£266.90) in profit hitting a strike rate of 85%.
To clarify, the ‘Any’ is just laying every horse at BFSP regardless of price, and ‘Main’ refers to how I am reviewing it, e.g. the BFSP has to be less than 4.0 at the start otherwise the horse is a no-bet.
Hope this isn’t confusing – different people prefer to bet in different ways and for those that like an in-running bet, or those that want to see how a system performs without price constraints, I thought it might come in useful.
Cheers,
Sgt Rob.
