Winning Racing Tips Day 52-58
Hi Constables here is the update for Winning Racing Tips
Starting Bank 1,000
Current Bank up to and including Day 51 1,317
Cumulative Profit/Loss +12.68
Monday 21st june
Each Way Value:
3.00 Wolverhampton 2. Eastern Magic 0.25pt e/w (10/1 Bet365*/Tote*/Paddy*) 
This isn;t a race to get too excited about but there is definate each way value to be had in taking on this favourite
that has been a beaten fav twice already and has been off the track a while.Lots can be ruled out of this and of the few with chances,
I like the look of Eastern Magic the most.
He was slowly away on debut three weeks ago but didn’t concede a lot of ground in the end in 4th with two decent horses just in front.
If improving form that and comping with the surface he’d have to have a decent chance here.
Result 6th
chased leader until over 2f out, weakened well over 1f out
-0.5 points
Tuesday 22nd June
No selections today.
Wednesday 23rd June
Each Way Value:
2.10 Salisbury 8. Perfect Pastime 0.4pt e/w (17/2 Betinternet* or 8/1
Skybet, 7/1 with Ladbrokes* is Ok)
This is a 14 runner Maiden, a few more runners than ideal. But most dont
look any great shakes on paper and the form at the top end of the market
looks decent. With that said, I'm happy to only consider 5 that have
chances here. Cape Rambler is from a yard that have rolled out a couple of
2yo debutant winners recently and is worth a couple of quid at 38+ on
Betfair, just in case this is another one, but isn't each way material as
there is very little to go on. On the balance of probability this is likely
to be fought out between the horses with experience and form. St Oswald,
Fight The Chance and Perfect Pastime all showed promise on debut and I'd
rate them all with similar chances. But slight preference is for Perfect
Pastime who is also the bigest price of the three. He was 2nd of 14 on
debut over 6f and didn't actually get a totally clear run.
2.20 Worcester 3. Dormouse 0.4pt e/w (8/1 Betinternet* or 7/1
Bet365*/Paddypower*) NOTE 8 RUNNERS
This is an 8 runner Novice Hurdle where the top 3 look the only ones with
chances. The other 5 have shown nothing at all and a drastic improvement or
a poor show from one of the favourites would be required for any of them to
get a sniff of a place. Admiral Dundas was OK onm the flat but that form
doesn't always translate to NH racing straight away and I dont like the
4/1. Therefore Dormouse looks the each way value here. His bumper forn
reads well in this comapny, and although he would need to be on song on his
first start over hurdles returning from a long break he looks to have been
found an easy race to at least be competitive in.
Perfect Pasttime Result 5th
took keen hold, led over 1f, chased leader until 2f out,
weakened inside final furlong
Dormouse result 6th
chased leaders, ridden before 3 out, weakened
-1.6 Points
Thursday 24th June
Nothing today.
Friday 25th June
Each Way Value:
2.20 Doncaster 7. Royal Liaison 0.7pt e/w (4/1 Ladbrokes*/Paddypower*/StanJames*)
Betting in 2yo races can undo your best plans,
especially when there are multiple newcomers from stables that can ready one first time out.
However Royal Liason has the best form on offer and experience counts a lot in these races.
She raced relatively green last time but still managed a close 2nd.
So with likely improvement I find it hard to justify odds as big as 4/1
and she is each way value in a race where surely most will need the race.
Out of a total of 15 2yo races this year Michael Bell has got 11 1st, 2nd or 3rd places.
result 3rd
with leaders, led over 3f out, headed well over 1f out, kept on same pace
- 0.14 Points
Saturday 26th June
Each Way Value:
4.15 Newcastle 3. King Of Aquitaine 0.4pt e/w ONLY at 5/1 OR BETTER.
This is a horse with decent progressive form in a maiden with few other challengers, a typical selection for us.
Unfortunately I started looking at this one when it was 13/2 and its since been tipped by Hugh Taylor and basically hammered.
By the time you get this you'd be lucky to get 9/2 and I cant recommend it at those odds.
I feel like we've had a selection stolen from us here but its my own fault really for not being quicker.
I think the value has gone at this point but if you can get 5/1 in the live show then its a 0.4pt e/w selection.
6.40 Doncaster 2. Belgian Bill 0.6pt e/w (7/2 Lads*/Corals*/StanJames*)
Only a few to consider here, and on paper at least, only one newcomer to worry about.
Belgian Bill has the benefit of experience though and showed ability after racing green early on debut,
once the penny dropped.
My Single Malt didn't seem to know what was required on debut and may have a lot of improvement,
but on what we've seen,
I'd prefer to be with Belgian Bill.
He would only have to beat 2 out of the expected 5 that have any chance to place,
and looks likely to win a race at some point,
however this bet is tinged with some caution as three of these have fancy entries and must be highly regarded.
7.55 Lingfield 3. Blitzed 0.6pt e/w (5/1 Bet365*/Lads*/VCBet*)
Blitzed is against a hot pot favourite here,
but he is the only one with form over the distance and one of only four to have shown any promise at all.
Indeed its very difficult to make a case for any of those outside the top 4 in the betting.
Baralaka and Budding Daffodil are both dangers with reasons to think they'll do better than what they've achieved so far,
not least Sir Mark Precott's outstanding current form, however Blitzed has shown more on the track,
should be fit having raced recently and can come on for that run with it being his first of the year.
8.50 Doncaster 8. Miss Jean Brodie 0.25pt e/w (10/1 StanJames*/Betfred*/VCBet*)
This race is a little more competitive but there are reasons to believe 10/1 is value on this one.
Miss Jean Brodie run a strange race on debut over this distance on the AW, she was out the back,
didn't take the corners well at all,
but ended up running a much longer course wide around the field to produce a storming run down the home straight to take 3rd.
I think its safe to say she is better that the 10l that she was beaten that day.
She has a more experienced jockey on baord today, she is the only Goldolphin runner making the long trip to Doncaster,
and looks sure to improve.
From the Godolhin site:
"encouraging 10 lengths third of 13 to Mirror Lake in maiden at Kempton, headway not unduly knocked about: will improve. "
King Of Aquitaine Result 1st, but never saw the price go to 5/1 so there for no bet
Belgian Bil Result 1st, tracked leaders, challenged on outside over 2f out, led over 1f out,
ridden and edged right inside final furlong,
Blitzed Result 2nd, held up mid-division, headway over 3f out,
ridden and chased winner over 1f out, stayed on towards finish
Miss Jean Brodie Result 1st,mid-division on outside, headway 4f out,
led narrowly 3f out, ridden over 1f out, stayed on well final 75 yards
+5.52 Points
Sunday 27th June
Each Way Value:
2.10 Uttoxeter 4. Douglas 0.2pt e/w (20/1 Bet365*/StanJames* - Lads/Corals/Hills yet to price)
I could of course be off the mark here, but Douglas looks way too big at 20/1 in this.
He might not have showed anything in bumpers,
but he has improved since going over hurdles.
Only finding one too good on debut over course and distance 10l behind a 119 rated horse.
He was then a 29 length 4th over course and distance last month,
but that result doesn't tell the whole story as he made a shocking error 2 out and lost all momentum.
Without that error its likely he'd have finished placed, close to the 112 rated winner and 118 rated runner up.
Both of those horses are higher rated than anything in this race and with that in mind I think Douglas looks value at 20/1.
At the time of writing there is a little bit at 5.2 in the place market on Betfair,
I'd suggest anything above 5.0 is well worth taking as a side bet.
Douglas Result 11th, prominent, hit 3rd, ridden before 9th, weakened 3 out
-0.4 Points
Starting Bank 1,000
Bank up to and including Day 51 1,317
Current bank up to and including Day 58 1,388.75
Cumulative Profit/Loss +15.55
A few more bets this week and we were unlucky where the author found a winner,
but the price was hammered in before it got to us so it never qualified as a bet,
so a small profit on the week is better than none at all
Until next time
Regards
Sgt Danny
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