Draw Day Demolition Final Review
14th September 2015
Sgt Short Reviews Draw Day Demolition
Hello everybody, apologies for keeping you waiting for this one. Let’s start as usual by reminding ourselves where we started.
Here is the introduction again, as you may remember it came in several installments.
Hello and welcome to my latest review. This comes to us from the same team that brought us Soccer Streaks, which I enjoyed, so I am looking forward to seeing how this one fares.
The basic premise is simple, they email us every day with selected football matches that they believe will not end in a draw. We use this information to make money by
- Backing either team to win in the double chance market.
- Dutching both teams to win in the match odds market.
- Laying the draw on a betting exchange.
They say that a strike rate of 77% is required to make a profit, and they have been doing much better than that. The initial testing was done from November 2014 to January 2015 and in that time they made £1,740 profit, although this was to £100 stakes. There will be around 10 to 20 selections per week.
There is all kinds of good advice on staking and options available to you when you join to help make the most of the selections. Those of you who are familiar with trading will know that Laying The Draw is probably the first strategy there was, and there are numerous variations on the theme. Also we do not necessarily have to dutch the two teams for equal amounts, we may decide to weight it towards the favourite or the underdog. I may well be trying some of these things, but for reporting purposes I will have to keep it simple, with a flat stake on the double chance. Whatever size of bank you decide to start with it is recommended that you don’t bet more than 10% on any bet.
The service started on 6 February with a free trial, which ended on Sunday 15th, so we will start our trial from Monday 16th, reporting weekly. The cost of the service is £24.99 plus VAT per month, so £29.99 for most of us. There is an unconditional 30 day money back guarantee.
We are only 5 days into the trial, and 5 of the 12 selections have been draws. This has prompted a rapid change of direction for the DDD team, and the following message was sent out to subscribers on 20 February:
As you know, DDD is a new service that we recently launched and have had very high hopes for. However, the results so far have simply not met the mark and we are not afraid to admit it. We have decided to make some much needed changes to ensure that you do not have to continue enduring losing selections.
We studied our vast historical statistics and spotted another opportunity, which although similar to DDD’s approach, is slightly different, equally flexible, less risky, and more likely to generate the profits we were hoping for.
We will continue to email you our selections over the next couple of weeks as a ‘new’ trial. We appreciate these changes may come as a surprise, but we have enough integrity to admit when something isn’t going to plan and would much rather quickly react to fix it, rather than drag our highly valued members through the mud. Apologies for the inconvenience and we hope you are as excited about these changes as we are.
Here are the highlights of the DDD Extreme Makeover:
- Average odds of our selections will range from around 1.4 to 1.7 (DNB market)
- Our selections will focus on the draw-no-bet market
- Our selections will mostly favour an away victory (with the safety net of a draw)
- Our service will remain flexible as you can choose to place your bets in any of the following ways:
- Back an away victory in the draw no bet market (bet refunded if match ends in a draw)
- Back an away victory or a draw in the double chance market (X2)
- Dutch an away victory and a draw
- Lay the home win (on betting exchanges
We will therefore forget the past couple of weeks and start on the new & improved service today.
On 22 February the selections email contained some new advice
The selections below are matches we believe will end in an away win or a draw. Based on some suggestions from members and based on today’s results, we have added one more betting method below (back the draw).
DDD Selections – 22 February, 2015 (kick-off in UK time):
- GERMANY Oberliga Niederrhein – 14:00 – Baumberg v Duisburg II (Latest Odds)
- AUSTRIA Tipico Bundesliga – 15:30 – Admira v Rapid Vienna (Latest Odds)
- POLAND Ekstraklasa – 17:00 – Korona Kielce v Legia (Latest Odds)
We suggest any of the five betting methods listed below.
- Draw No Bet – bet on an away victory (bet will be refunded if match ends in a draw)
- Double Chance – bet on an away win and a draw (X2) in the double chance market
- Back the Draw – bet on the match to end in a draw
- Dutching – place two bets, one on a draw and one on an away win (calculator)
- Laying – laying the home win on betting exchanges such as BetFair and sMarkets
We have decided to observe this one for a while and see what happens before we decide on the best way to proceed.
OK, the system seems to be settled and some of you are getting impatient so here we go. We are not able to provide information for all the possible bet types so we have chosen to back the away team (DNB) and to back the draw. The other 3 bet types give you a double chance and therefore the odds will be lower than our DNB odds (which are already pretty low). The odds to back a draw are always good so that is what I personally will be doing.
Like Soccer Streaks the selections are from all kinds of strange and wonderful leagues, so most of us will not have an opinion on the bet, we will just do as we are told, which is probably an advantage. Unlike Soccer streaks we don’t know what the criteria are for making the list. We started in late April and finished in mid July, so not an ideal period to test a football system. Over the 12 weeks we had 91 selections. 46 were away wins, 29 were draws and only 16 were home wins, therefore DDD can claim a strike rate of over 82%, but is that enough for a profit? In my case it was. I decided to take two of the five suggested betting methods, and both finished ahead. We made 2.18 points by backing the away team with DNB. I suspect that a/double chance or b/dutching the draw and away or c/laying the home win would have all been very similar. These three involve betting on two of the three outcomes, so the odds were quite a bit worse, but we would have won the 29 draws in addition to the 46 aways.
I’m much more interested in backing the draw, the very opposite of how the service started out. Everybody knows that draws only turn up when you don’t want them to and spoil your day, so it’s nice when they’re on your side. Anybody that can pick draws regularly will make good money, with average odds over 3.70 the profit on backing the draw was 16.60 points.
Backing the away DNB produced a profit of 2.18 points from 91 selections. I am assuming that the other three methods would have been similar. Although any profit is good news this is not enough to justify the time and effort involved, and not enough to cover your subscription. As far as I am concerned, backing the draw is the only worthwhile method, and doing this we made a profit of 16.60 points in the 12 weeks. If the strike rate of nearly 32% could be maintained this could produce decent profits.
Ease of use
Emails were sent every evening containing the following days selections, which could and often did include the early morning. Personally I don’t like this. Once I am finished for the day I don’t want to check for more selections and deal with them before I go to bed, and would much prefer any night-time selections to be included in the previous days list. (General note to all tipsters). Communication was 100% reliable, if there were no selections for tomorrow you would get a message to say so. Some of the games were rather obscure, but the listing includes the league name and the match time, and a link to Oddsportal. You may have to open some accounts with smaller bookies. I think there was only one occasion when I could not place the bet.
There were good weeks and bad weeks but nothing too volatile. I don’t think there is any chance of blowing the bank with this.
Return on Investment (ROI)
As I said above, I would not consider anything other than backing the draw with these selections. The ROI on the other methods is tiny and not enough to cover your costs. Backing the draw generated a profit of 16.60 points from 91 points bet, an ROI of over 18%, which is not bad for a football service.
Support and documentation
Email instructions regarding the selections are clear, and turned up every day on time without fail. I’m not sure that giving people a choice of five bet types is a good idea, although it does give the service a chance to claim victory maybe more than it should. When they say “good day yesterday with one away and one draw” it does not necessarily mean that everybody made a profit.
If DDD can keep picking draws, which we all know is very difficult unless you’re not trying, then I think they are worth a small investment of your time and money to have a proper look.
Our Overall Is Rating:
Thank you for your time and I hope you enjoyed the review.