Betfair Success Formula – Final Review

13

Betfair Success Formula – Final Review

BetfairSuccessFormula Betfair Success Formula   Final Review

30th October 2011

Sgt Rich Review Summary of Betfair Success Formula

Passed and approved

Rating 3.5 stars Betfair Success Formula   Final Review

Here’s a brief re-cap of key points from the Intro:

The bets are placed before Kick Off with a major bet on the main Match Odds market and with an “insurance” bet on another market for the same match. You do need to watch the odds in-play, so that you can trade off your bets. The sales page says that with £100 bets and a starting bank of £1,000, you would have made over £1,000 profit in 34 days! So we’ll see how we do over a 56 day period and if it is successful we will see how it does over the extended 84 day period.

We’ll start with a £100 bank and bets of £10. Our target will be to make £100 profit. In other words, 100 point bank, with 10 point bets and a target of 100 points profit.

The sales page describes it as a low-risk strategy, but it should be understood that it is the choice of matches that makes it “low-risk”, the actual bets, being lays, carry a relatively high risk. If the match goes against your expectation you can be carrying a lay liability of 4 to 7 points for 1 point lays. So the trick is to try to pick matches where the actual game does not go against expectation. If the match goes against you, the advice is to wait until half-time to see if it sways back in your favour. I expect this will take some nerve. The author advises not to worry!

If you look at the sales page, you will see what I mean; out of 34 betting days there were 4 losing days carrying losses of between -55 and -100; compare these to the profits on winning days. So the success secret is to pick matches where these losing days are rare. So their strike rate of successful winning days was 30/34 or 88%. I’ll compare that to the strike rate that I get.

So after 56 days I had made 81.43 points profit – nearly the target of 100. By day 84 I’d made 109.35 points. My strike rate of winning days was 50 winning days out of 64, which is 78%. I thought it was relevant to include no bet days when I looked for a qualifying match but didn’t get one, as it does take some time to check through all the Betfair Success Formula criteria.

In summary, the strategy has had 50 winning days, 14 losing days and 20 no bet days. I’ve done 91 matches with 74 of them making a profit. A strike rate on the matches of 81%

Cumulative P/L: + 109.35 points

Cumulative Bank (100 point start): 209.35 points

Here is a graph of the running balance during the review period, starting with 100 points (£100)

BetfairSuccess Betfair Success Formula   Final Review

The straight line is the trend line – as you can see the balance steadily increased on average. As mentioned in my Intro the potential liability is quite high and in the graph, you can see there were about 9 serious drops, but you can also see that the winning selections recover the losses fairly quickly.

When this review started, I didn’t think it would be successful, especially as we experienced some early set-backs. But over time the Formula has vindicated itself and now it is one of my major trading strategies that I use on a regular basis.

After the long break for the close-season this summer, I wasn’t as strict in selecting matches as I felt I had a feel now for what matches I should choose. So I tended to not have any no-bet days. Whenever I used the formula on the day’s matches I tended to be able to find one.

Also in my personal betting I extended the match selection to lesser leagues and although I haven’t included them in the review, they too have produced profit for me. The Formula looks for matches with high volume of traded funds, but I have found it works even when much less is being traded.

There are some odd aspects to Betfair Success Formula. In some ways it is counter-intuitive.  Also far more profit is made if the match initially goes the wrong way and then swings back. Also occasionally when it does go the expected way, it can be somewhat difficult to make a profit. But overall, usually a nice steady profit is made when it goes the way you expect.

During the review I also noted down the profit to be made by trading out earlier. The manual recommends waiting until half-time to trade out. That’s what the results of this review have been reporting. But often there are opportunities to trade out earlier than that. On these earlier trades I have made a total profit of 45.48 points compared to the half-time profit of 109.35 points. Much less profit, but much safer.

Overall this has been a surprising and enjoyable experience and am delighted to have a successful strategy to add to my personal portfolio of trading strategies.

Summary of Betfair Success Formula

  • Profitability compared to liquidity needed – we had a bank of £100 and it made £109 profit – 4 stars out of 5
  • Ease of use Very easy once you are used to it – 4 stars out of 5
  • Risk The worst loss was -£31.57 another was -£23.94. More usually the losses were around -£5 to -£10. The £100 bank was never threatened – 3 stars out of 5
  • Return on investment (ROI) The maximum liability, in any one match, on the lay bets has been £76 (most of the start bank of £100) – although in practice you don’t actually risk that much, because you trade out before you could lose that much. However sometimes the return per match can be quite low, sometimes well below £1 The average return per match has been £1.20 – 3 stars out of 5
  • Support and documentation Michael was very helpful in the early days of the review – I think he would be equally helpful to regular purchasers. The manual is overly complicated and hard to read in my opinion. But it covers everything that you need to know. - 3 stars out of 5
  • Time needed to apply the system It was time consuming at first, but by the end of the review it was taking me very little time to find my matches - 4 stars out of 5

Overall I am passing this with 3.5 stars, which is deliberately on the conservative side, due to the relatively small profits made on some matches compared to the funds tied up in the lays and due to the rare, relatively large losses. However over a long review period I have found the strategy to be surprisingly safe. Over 1% of the bank profit per match means that one could easily ratchet up the stakes – for the review I stuck to the level £10 lays for a £100 bank.

The Betfair Success Formula is a valuable addition to anybody’s betting portfolio and with patience and discipline you will soon be making regular and steady profits for life or as long as there is in-play trading on football!

Rating 3.5 stars Betfair Success Formula   Final Review

[Click Here to see the sales page for Betfair Success Formula …]

Sgt Rich’s Completed Review of Betfair Success Formula

Written by on . Comment#

Passed 5/5 Stars

Passed 4.5/5 Stars

Comments on Betfair Success Formula – Final Review Go on! Have your say!

December 7, 2011

Burko Hynes @ 12:28 pm #

Rich – I’m back. I’m having a tough time making this system profitable for myself, and after 28 games, I’m down 47 points, due largely to 2 wipeout games which were 2-1 at half time to the outsider, the favourite having scored first (so I didn’t even win the insurance bet!!). I would be slightly in profit without these two games so its not all bad but I still have a couple of questions for you which I’d really appreciate you answering…

1. Analysis – after you answered my last question, I’m now picking matches where the Outsider’s lay odds are between 6 and 9. Is it just bad luck that I have had these two wipeout games, or are there any other signs I should be looking for?

2. Trading out at points other than half-time – I went back over your review day-by-day to try and garner some tips and noticed that at certain points you traded out at points other than half-time. Sometimes when the favourite was 1-0 down at half-time I noticed you waited till the second half to see if the favourite equalised – any hard and fast rules as regards this or is it just your nose for a game? Also if the favourite went 2-0 up in the first half you traded out before half-time, since you had a good profit sorted – is this correct?

Any other tips? I’m determined to make this work for me!!

Again, if this reveals too many details feel free to email me privately.

Burko.

November 20, 2011

Burko Hynes @ 1:51 am #

Thanks Rich – really enjoy your reviews BTW.

November 19, 2011

Review Manager Rich @ 11:22 pm #

Hi Burko

Simplistic or simple can be powerful!

I don’t add any extra criteria. But I do do matches (for my own betting since the review finished) with a lower liquidity threshold – just so that I have more matches to do.

The main initial criteria I use is the odds for the main bet (not the insurance bet) I pick matches where the odds are as close as possible to the max odds as outlined in the manual. Sometimes I go for a match slightly above the max odds.

Burko Hynes @ 4:10 pm #

Rich – I recently purchased this system after the review you gave it. The method of picking matches as outlined in the manual seems a bit too simplistic to me…are there any other criteria you use to pick the right games? Feel free to email me if you don’t want to give away too many details on the site….

November 15, 2011

Aaron @ 12:20 am #

@Review Manager Rich:

Hey mate, thanks so much for the advise. Will apply these points in my paper test.

November 13, 2011

Review Manager Rich @ 10:32 pm #

I don’t think it needs to be as high as 500,000 traded. But high liquidity matches like that are very easy to get your trade-out bets on.

Personally I’m doing matches with much lower amounts traded, but you need to be alert, along the lines I laid out in my last reply.

A “tick” on Betfair is the minimum amount or increment that the odds can change according to the Betfair system of setting odds.

From 1.01 to 2.00 one tick is equal to 0.01.

From 2.02 to 3.00 one tick is equal to 0.02.

From 3.05 to 4.00 one tick is equal to 0.05.

From 4.1 to 6.0 one tick is equal to 0.1.

etc.

So if the back odds are 3.1 and the lay odds are 3.15 the odds are only one tick apart. If the lay odds are 3.2 then the odds are two ticks apart.

On low liquidity matches the odds can be much further apart (maybe 3.1 back odds and 3.7 lay odds – meaning the true odds are somewhere in between) and it indicates a poor level of matched bets. If you see odds differntials like that, you are best leaving it to nearer the KO before placing your lays to see if the back and lay odds get closer together. If they don’t and the total amount matched is low, then you are best avoiding the match as you won’t get value on your lays and trades.

Aaron @ 5:10 pm #

@Review Manager Rich:

Hi Rich,

thanks for your reply, very interesting reading. What do you mean by 1 or 2 ticks apart? Its that where the odds are basically the same either way? Also the manual says only bet in leagues where the amount matched is over $500,000, do you think it needs to be that much?

cheers for you help.

Aaron

Review Manager Rich @ 10:09 am #

Hi Aaron

The lesser leagues were still in the European time zone. I don’t have any experience with matches in your time zone.

Wherever and whenever the matches are played, the liquidity in the market is going to be key. There needs to be enough money traded in the markets, so that when you trade out you can get matched at the right price.

Sometimes a 0-0 at half-time resulted in a small loss, but usually it gave a profit. If it is showing a loss, it could be because there is not enough liquidity to have the back and lay prices close together (1 or 2 ticks apart). If there is too big a gap, then your back prices are going to show a loss.

You could try setting the trade-out back bets at the start of half-time at a high enough level to show a profit and wait during the interval to see if they are matched. If they haven’t been, then you should accept the loss and lower your back prices just before the second half kicks off.

The key really is watching the liquidity before the KO and only place your lays if the market is liquid. The key indicators are amount traded, the gap between back and lay prices and the %age overround on the back prices (should be close to 100% to show the back prices are accurate.)

Aaron @ 3:30 am #

@Review Manager Rich:
Hi Sgt Rich,

Thanks for the review and because of it i purchased this product. I agree with you the manual wasnt the easiest to understand and it took me a few reads to get what he was trying to explain. You state you tried it in lesser leagues, what leagues were they? Im in NZ so and the time difference makes the games unrealistic for me to watch as they are on at 3am in the morning, however im trying to paper trail them on leagues in my time zone with the Brazilian league being one. Another question i have is the 0-0 at half time, i have had a few in the brazilian league gems but when i traded out they all resulted in a small loss. I dont know whether its the league or what.

cheers,
Aaron

November 3, 2011

Review Manager Rich @ 10:05 am #

I agree, Ian. But that is generally true of most of the reviews we conduct.

Making a sizable profit compared to the starting bank used is rare.

It seems to me the name of the game is
1. finding something that is consistantly profitable
2. then re-investing profits back into the starting bank to increase stakes
3. Keep increasing stakes as long as there is enough liquidity to do so.

It is rare for any of our reviews to achieve #1. But we do our reviews so that you don’t have to waste your time and money doing so,

Betfair Success Formula, despite a few heavy losses, achieved #1 very well. 1.20 points profit per trade over a considerable length of time. As someone who has traded I’m sure you appreciate that this method of betting is not as straight forward as some people think. There are many trading “strategies” that work well but bomb out big-time every now and then.

What my review showed, I think, is that the inevitable trading losses are manageable with this strategy. I will do a ratchet staking results graph for readers as soon a I get chance – it may go into the newsletter.

There is definitely a limit to how much you could lay on the insurance bet – the liquidity is sometimes surprisingly low. But increasing to £100 lays for £12 profit makes this strategy very interesting. (my maths was wrong in my first comment. £1.20 profit multiplies to £12 profit)

By the way, anything that makes 1% profit per day on average is, in very short time, the road to riches, so long as the method is scaleable.

November 2, 2011

Ian Fraser @ 9:25 pm #

Apologies, didn’t absorb the trade out by half time comment and fully appreciate 109% return is fantastic in the grand scheme of things. Was simply pointing out an element I had experienced myself and which you didn’t appear to take account of in your review which was the time element and the relatively small – albeit profitable – return at stakes most normal folks would be playing on the time invested having to monitor each game your trading. @Ian Fraser:

Review Manager Rich @ 2:17 pm #

LOL!

My review states you trade out at half-time so your maths are wrong from the start! (grin)

Take a look at our weekly newsletter table and graphs. Currently only 9 reviews are making more than 20% profit and only three are making over 100% profit.

So 109% profit puts this as one of the top performers! I did specifically not give this a higher number of stars because of the return to investment aspect, as laid out in my review.

You can make up your own mind as to whether you want to go and work at McDonalds instead! LOL!

Try putting £100 in a bank and try to get £109 interest on it in the time this review has been running!

The strategy is somewhat scalable – I just stuck to £10 stakes as that was the level at the start of the review.

If I get chance I’ll put the results through a ratchet staking plan and let the readers know what it would have done.

It is true that as stakes increase there would be liquidity problems on the “insurance” bet, but you could easily increase to £100 lays with £1,000 bank and still get your bets matched. Then you would be earning an average of about £10.20 per match – more than McDonald’s pays for 45 minutes, as far as I know! LOL!

Of course, you don’t have to “watch” the first half continuously – but if you are a football person, you probably wouldn’t mind doing that.

You place your bets before KO and could, in fact just log in at half time and trade out your bets – you would still get the same results that I got.

Heck you could go and work in McDonalds, slip to the loo before KO and place your bets with your mobile and slip back to the loo at half-time to trade out! LOL!

Ian Fraser @ 9:29 am #

You state you have to track a game whilst in progress for this system. Worst case scenario then is 91 games watched at 90 minutes per game which equates to over 136 hours watching games for a profit of 109 points which isn’t a great return if you treated it as a job i.e. less than a 1pt an hour. Appreciate you probably traded out earlier than 90 mins in most cases and also if your into football you may have spent that time tracking the games anyways in which case no big deal having to spend that amount of time tracking bets but think its maybe something to consider when rating the system. I’ve tried some trading strategies and found like yourself the returns many times are very small in relation to the time spent having to track the game which is why I’ve dropped them. Personally whilst any system that turns a profit is a good one I wouldn’t recommend something that at the stakes most people play with required that much of an investment time wise for little return, better to get a job in McDonalds which would still pay more an hour!

1

Go on! Have your say!

All comments are now moderated to combat spam, please allow a few hours for moderation.

Fields marked by an asterisk (*) are required.

*