Place 2 Profit – Final Review
Sergeant Rich-Reviews Place 2 Profit
Passed and Approved
A quick recap, Place 2 Profit is a tipping service that sends daily e-mails of tips in two categories “Hotshots” and “Longshots”. All bets are for a place only and my results are based upon Betfair SP for a place. You could also use BetDaq and Totesport which also run a Place Only market.
Place 2 Profit is rather difficult to assess and give a final pass or fail to. Mainly because the results have been fairly inconsistent. All results are reported after 5% betfair commission on winning bets.
As you can see in the above graph of the betting balance, the period of the review of Place 2 Profit can be split into three sections. Depending on when you subscribed to the tips you would have very different experiences and differing views of the service.
Section A shows an initial profit before drifting down to 22.69 points. If you had been a subscriber during this 25 day period I doubt you would have continued.
Section B shows a complete turnaround! The bank rising consistently from 22.69 points to 59.68 points over 31 days. A subscriber during this period would have been delighted with the profits the tips made! Day 42 is of particular note when a profit of 14.85 points was made. But even without that one exceptionally good day, the profit shows a nice upward trend during this period.
Section C covers the extended review period from Day 57 to Day 84 and it shows a steady, but slight, decline of the bank. Until day 84 when a massive 15.38 points profit was made on Grand National day! This was based upon a good Hotshot double and a very good Longshot place on State of Play – 4th in the Grand National.
During this Section C of 28 days, a subscriber would have been left cold by the results until the final day. This begs the question how representative would Grand National day be as regards the place odds, compared to a more normal racing day?
But a profit is a profit. Without that great last day, the final bank would have been 51.84 points from a start of 50 points. Nothing too impressive, but the middle period of the review is certainly impressive. This is the benefit of a relatively long review period of Place 2 Profit – It gives us a good overall picture – good periods and bad periods.
Breakdown of results
67 Hotshot bets, most of them being doubles.
36 bets won and 31 lost. Giving a strike rate of 53.73%
and an overall profit of 30.45 points, based upon the recommended stakes. ( 317 points staked, 30.45 points profit – Return on Investment of 9.61%)
and a level stakes profit of 3.2 points based upon 1 point level stakes. (67 points staked, 3.2 points profit – Return on Investment of 4.78%)
89 Longshot bets, most of them being singles, but with 19 doubles and 1 treble.
24 bets won and 65 lost. Giving a strike rate of 26.97%
and an overall loss of -13.23 points, based upon recommended level stakes of 1 point. (Return on Investment of -14.87%)
The combined results are:
156 Hotshot & Longshot bets,
60 bets won and 96 lost. Giving a strike rate of 38.46%
and an overall profit of 17.22 points, based upon the recommended stakes. (Return on Investment of 4.24%)
and a level stakes loss of -10.03 points based upon 1 point level stakes. (Return on Investment of -6.43%)
NB There was an error in my spreadsheet, during the review period where I missed entering in a result of -1.00 points. I have adjusted that in these figures.
From the above, it is clear that maximum profit during the review period of Place 2 Profit would have been obtained by following the Hotshots to recommended stakes and ignoring the Longshot tips. Especially when we take into account the good final day results when the Longshots made a total profit of 5.60 points.
[There were two Placepot (fun bets) which lost, giving a cumulative P/L: -20.00 points – but as they are fun bets, they are not part of this Final Review.]
So I must admit to being surprised by the success of Place 2 Profit. During the review period, especially up to Day 25, I expected it to fail after 56 days and even lose all the 50 point starting bank.
I have included level stakes results and Return On Investment (ROI) results as they make a useful comparison measure with other services. But the final judgement must be on the actual service as given by the Tipster. The Longshots are given to 1 point level stakes and the Hotshots are given to variable stakes which have been between 1 point doubles to 8 point doubles as reported in the daily blog. These are the results that I am basing my final rating upon.
If you had followed all the tips, over 84 days you would have made a nice profit of 17.22/50= 34.44% of 50 point starting bank . You would have made an even greater profit (30.45/50= 60.90% of 50 point starting bank) if you had ignored the Longshot tips.
There are three subscription options for Place 2 Profit, either £47 for one month; £94 for three months; or £141 for six months. This cost needs to be factored in to the profitability of the service and depends upon the size of your bank and stakes. For the 84 days you would have needed at least three months subscription at either £141 (3 x £47) or £94. If you had a bank of £50 and £1 per point stakes then your approximately £30 or £17 profit would not have covered the cost. If you had a £500 bank and £10 per point stakes then your profit of approximately £300 or £170 profit would have covered the cost. And so on …
The great unknown is will this success continue? This is the problem with all tipping services. With mathematical methods, one can be fairly certain the results will continue, once one has a large enough sample size. For this tipping service we have a sample of 84 days (there were only 2 no-bets days), which is quite large, but tips depend upon the tipster continuing to maintain their form. However we cannot pass or fail a tipping service based upon either fear or optimism about future results, we can only pass or fail based upon the review period.
If Betfan, are good enough to continue sending me the tips I will return to this review as and when time allows to give an idea of on-going success or failure of the service.
So in conclusion here are my review assessments of the service:
Profitability compared to liquidity needed: 3 stars out of 5: 17 or 30 points profit on a 50 point bank is good. The loss on the Longshots takes away from this somewhat.
Ease of use: 3 stars out of 5: quite easy – get the e-mail, go to Betfair, place the bets. The only complication is for the doubles, one needs to put the stake on the first bet and depending upon the result after Betfair commission, place the original stake plus net winnings on the second bet. If you are not used to this, it can seem complicated until you “get” it.
Risk: 3 stars out of 5: it lost half the bank in the first 25 days, but the total bank of 50 points was adequate to cover this losing run.
Return on investment (ROI): 2 stars out of 5: Approx 4 to 10% ROI for the Hotshots or combined Hotshots/Longshots is OK. A negative -10% ROI for Longshots – not so good! I have to review both kinds of bets combined so the average of 4.24% is OK.
Support and documentation: 4 stars out of 5: The tips came through without fail, every day from Betfan and there is the backup web site if you don’t get them. Just once, the tip failed to give the size of bet on the Hotshot double and I had to make a guess of an average from previous tips. A minor omission over 84 days.
Time needed to apply the system: 4 stars out of 5: Very quick to read the emails and place the bet, except for the calculation of stake to put on the second bet in a double, as noted above.
The average of the above is 3.17 stars, so I am passing this system with a rating of 3.0 stars. With a strong caveat that the final profits/losses were greatly affected by one final day producing unrepresentative day profits of 9.77 points on Hotshots and 5.6 points on Longshots. But the actual results of the total review period are the thing that affects the final rating, so these good final day results must be included and taken into account in my rating. You could take the final day profits off the final results and use that to make up your own mind regards Place 2 Profit.