First Favourite Final Review
9 September 2014
Sgt Short – Reviews First Favourite
To remind you where we started, I will begin by reproducing the introduction.
This one promises to be a lot easier than most of the reviews I have done, because Mel Gee (the man behind First Favourites) is extremely careful about making his selections, to such an extent that in 2014 so far there have been on average less than one bet every two days. This is because he wants to keep his strike rate very high. I have analysed the results from his web site from January to May. There have been 38 winners from the 71 bets, a strike rate of 53.52%. This combined with his recommended staking plan should make us good long term profits, enough to leave the bookies crying he says.
This (like all tipster services I suppose) is aimed at those of us who are not willing or able to do the work involved in picking our own winners. He is offering us a proven approach which he has perfected over many years. He believes that if we stay disciplined and follow his advice exactly we can’t lose in the long run.
The staking plan involves betting 10% of the bank on each bet. The bank is updated after each day and increased if appropriate, but we don’t bet less than 10% of the original bank. We then take out some profit on a regular basis. Mel suggests when the bank approximately doubles. Looking at the results page, we would loosely look at the bank monthly and take our profit or top up if necessary. If we manage to double our bank before the end of the month, we take the profit now. If things go well we will decide whether to take all the profits or increase the bank.
An email is sent daily with the selections, or informing us that there are none. Selections are also available on the members area of the web site, as are the results.
The cost of the service is £47.00 plus VAT per month. Unusually there are no cheaper options available for longer periods. Membership will be restricted to 250. An unconditional 60 day money back guarantee is offered and signup is through clickbank.
Sunday is a no-bet day so I will be reporting weekly on activity from Monday to Saturday, starting today. I will use a £100 starting bank and will use the odds quoted by Mel on the email. As we are betting on favourites I will try to get my bet on as early as possible with a BOG bookmaker. Although Mel specifies his staking plan we here at BST always like to know what would happen at level stakes, so I will add this as a note each week.
In our 12 week review we had 53 advised bets, one of these was a non-runner, and 26 of the remaining 52 won their race, a strike rate of 50%. We staked a total of £695.77 on these bets at average odds of 2.35 and increased our £100 starting bank to £131.87, a return on investment of 4.58%. Our profit at level stakes (not recommended) would have been £69.19, a return on investment of 9.94%. We did not bet on Sundays, so we had 72 possible betting days, average bets per day was 0.74. Our longest winning run was 5, and our longest losing run was 4 (twice).
Since the trial ended there have been a further 8 bets up to yesterday, 5 of them were winners.
I don’t want to see the words PATIENCE and DISCIPLINE again for some time.
Yes we made a profit, and we all know that is not easy to do. I started with a bank of £100, which for a service like this is not enough. Our 12 weeks of tips would have cost us about £156 (£47 + VAT x 3 months less 1 week) so I would need to be starting around £50 per selection to break even using the staking plan, or around half of that at level stakes.
The problem with a fixed percentage staking plan is highlighted when the winning and losing runs are very short, as in this case. We make a large proportion of winning bets at the bottom of the range (because we then move up) and losing bets at the top of the range (because we then move down). Over our 12 week period we would have increased our profits by 217% using level stakes.
Ease of Use
The email turned up every morning around the same time without fail. I was surprised looking back that twice we had 4 selections in a day, but normally there was 1 or none. Could not be easier.
Although we never really saw the profits that were predicted, I think there was never any chance of blowing the bank. At first our profit curve was bumping along the bottom for a while, and slipped into negative territory a few times, but then we took off. As I said above there were short runs of winners and losers, but we managed to double our bank going into the last week. Unfortunately we finished by losing 5 out of 6 in the final week. We were betting on favourites at average odds of over evens and won exactly half of them, so I would expect a steady but unspectacular profit curve.
Return On Investment
This is not a cheap service so you would need to be betting at reasonably high stakes to cover your fees. We made 4.58% (or 9.94% at level stakes) in 12 weeks in what I would call a safe environment (I should say as safe as possible, we are still gambling) and I would say that is good.
Support And Documentation
I never found it necessary to contact Mel, the service is simple and straightforward. There is a members area on the website where you can pick up selections or check results, but my email turned up every day, and on our no bet Sunday we were given a helpful summary of the week before and an encouraging message reminding us to remain PATIENT and DISCIPLINED.
As you will have gathered by now, if you are looking for lots of action and excitement this is not for you. If you have the PATIENCE and DISCIPLINE required however, and are prepared to place reasonably large stakes and take a long term view then I would recommend this service as a good addition to your portfolio.
Our Overall Is [Rating:3.5]
Thank you for your time and I hope you enjoyed the review.