Betfair Miracle

 As mentioned yesterday i did query with the author Jason about the final rule of Betfair Miracle that the ISP just before the start of the race should be over 3/1 upto 8/1, because i had noticed that alot of the selections 3/1 and under were winning lays for the system  taking from when i started January 15th t0-date it has a 6.83 points profit and a 80% strike rate,  it was higher than this but there has been 3 winners within this field in the last week. It could be that the stats are now starting to even themselves out because the figures are still high compared to those given by Jason from 6th June 2007 – todate there was the following figures for horses 3/1 and   under:    

 

Bets…. 1125, Wins… 771, S/R…68.53%, Bank… +45.55pts, ROI… 4.05%

And to quote from Jason’s e-mail: ( I have his permission to use this). “Now it could be argued that a profit is still achieved, but this doesn’t take into consideration the fact that there is a variance between Industry SP and Betfair to factor into the results. Now obviously, we are dealing with the lower end of the SP table, so the variance will be considerably lower than that of the higher odds. But, and it’s a big but, I cant see the average being less than 4.05%, which means a profit is very unlikely to be achieved overall.  The only thing I will add, which is a positive, is the returns achieved for the 11/4 and 3/1 industry SP’s. They are…

3/1….. 159 Bets…. 119 Wins…. Strike Rate 74.80%….. Bank -1.00pt…. ROI -0.60%

11/4….. 179 Bets…. 141 Wins…. Strike Rate 78.80%….. Bank +36.50pts…. ROI +20.40%

Overall….. 338 Bets…. 260 Wins…. Strike Rate 76.92%….. Bank +35.50pts…. ROI +10.50% 

As you can see prices 11/4 and 3/1 do make a profit at Industry SP, equating to 10.50% ROI, but it’s hardly worth jumping up and down about. 

Now whilst this does not fill me with the urge to rush out and lay these selections, again because of the variance between Industry SP & Betfair prices, it does provide comfort to those members who use betting bots to place their bets. 

You see, despite the fact that I have written the manual quite clearly, I’m sure that some people are still setting their bots at 4.00 and not even allowing for a variance. So, the comforting fact is that even if they do set their bots too low, they wont lose money if they happen to hit on some 11/4 & 3/1 shots. 

Members who use betting bots may be undecided about where to place there price range, and one other thing I worry about is that their misconception of the size of the variance between industry SP and Betfair prices may lead members to set their betting bots at 10/3 +20%, which would equate to a Betfair price of 4.83 – which in my opinion WAY, WAY too high.”     

Now if we use the system following the over 3/1 to 8/1 the stats would be:  Bets…. 678, Wins… 615, S/R…91.00%, Bank… +368.00 pts,  ROI… 54.4% of course these figures are to ISP but even taking the higher BFSP plus 5% commission the ROI should be between 35 to 40% which is pretty good. Just to confirm i have found so far  found the price differential to be around 11% between ISP and BFSP, I included the comment about betting bots etc as i thought it would be helpful to bloggers who are using the system. As reviewers we are always looking for an edge in this case it looks as if the stats gave us a red herring, i had high hopes of a 80% plus strike rate with low odds for losing bets never mind back to the drawing board 🙁 , anyway i hope you did not find this piece to boring and at least we have found a system author who seems to understand customer service :-).  

                               Best Regards

                                  David