Betfan F1 Race 4
22nd April 2014
Sgt Lucian Reviews Betfan F1
Chinese Grand Prix ended with the third consecutive victory of Hamilton. Lewis Hamilton led from start to finish in a relatively uneventful Chinese Grand Prix. Mercedes showed again that it’s in a different class from its rivals, with Hamilton’s teammate Nico Rosberg taking second place — the third time in four races this season the pair have finished one-two.
Here is the argument behind “No Safety car” wining bet:
<<China Grand Prix
Statistical anomaly means bookies have got it wrong.
It’s happened for the first time this F1 season. Odds compilers have brought their banana skin to work, placed it under their chair leg and then decided to rock themselves on their seat while pricing up the Chinese Grand Prix.
There have been ten Chinese Grand Prix which have featured four Safety Car Periods. As that’s a good-sized sample it’s probably fair to say there is a 40 percent chance of a safety car being deployed this Sunday and 60 percent chance that it is not.
That converts directly into probability of 4/6 for no and 6/4 for yes. Funnily enough the best odds on offer for and against a safety car appearance is 4/6 and 6/5.
Therein lies the huge rick as only two races have actually been effected by a safety car period (when it was deployed twice). It means odds compilers have over-analysed their stats and should actually be betting 20 percent and 80 percent. That’s 1/4 no safety car and 4/1 that there is one.
There is another factor to consider which actually make a NO safety car scenario even shorter than 80 percent:
The last time it was brought into play, 2010, 24 cars lined-up for the race and not the 22 which will face the starter this Sunday. Two less cars means two less cars which can find themselves in a collision or stranded on a dangerous part of the circuit. That equates to eight percent.
Conclusion:
Not an attractive ‘get rich’ price but a hugely out-of-line all the same. 4/6 offers a return way in advance of what your money would if tied up in a five-year savings plan – and should give its yield after 90 minutes as opposed to 260 weeks.>>
Now the results.
Review Results starting with Race 2:
Start Bank : 250 points
Race 3 Bank: 264.93 points
| Sunday 20th April 2014 | 264.93 | ||
| BET – 3 Points on Both Toro Roso cars to finish the China GP at 7/5 | Win | 5.20 | |
| BET – 6 Points on No Safety car @ 4/6 | Win | 4.00 | |
| BET – 4 Points on Jenson Button To Finish Top 6 @ 5/4 | Loss | -4.00 | 270.13 |
Overall P/L//: +20.13 points
Running Bank : 270.13 Points
WIN P/L/: +5.20 points
Next – Spanish Grand Prix May 11 – and soon after next review post.
Thank you for your time and I hope you enjoy the review.
Regards,
Sgt Lucian Reviews Betfan F1
