We obviously got involved one or two races too early with Berlusca. He was dropped out, ridden very quietly, quickened nicely into 4th and when Pat Cosgrave had every chance to push him through a gap he has sat up and allowed the horse to drift home in his own time. Yes it’s not great to see but with these low grade AW horses the horse will win when connections want it too. Judging on that performance it won’t be long before they land a gamble.
New month and what a way to start. 1 tip 1 winner as Lacan won easily enough at Kempton. He drifted out to 6-1 which as a 1pt win bet returned very nice profit.
Tips for Thursday 2nd November, 2017
1.50 Lingfield Park – Mr Bossy Boots 7-1 widely available 3places/Sacred Act 6-1 widely available 3places Mr Bossy Boots Lost -£10/ Sacred Act Placed +£20
Both 0.5pts E/W
A really interesting 7f handicap and a very competitive race to get stuck into. Straight away Mr Bossy Boots make loads of appeal from stall 1 under Richard Kingscote. He has a fantastic record over this C and D and currently is a very well treated horse. He caught the eye last time out in a hot race at Kempton and as long as he breaks well tomorrow from stall 1 I expect him to be bang there. I also want one more on side in here and this was a tough choice between three horses Gulliver, Charles Molson and Sacred Act. I have sided with the later as Gulliver steps up in trip and often gets caught too far back while Charles Molson has fitness to prove after a recent break and a tough draw in stall 14. Sacred Act is race fit, has a good draw in stall 6 and should come on for his recent run at Ascot. He has run just once on the AW and it could be argued that he ran to his highest level that day, beaten just 1/2l by the 117 rated Lightning Spear despite only receiving 3lb. That makes him look very well treated running of 96 in here and the drop back to 7f’s looks a positive move. He is worth chancing on his best form and I’d rather back him each way than side with Gulliver win only.
2.25 Lingfield – Melodic Motion 9-4 widely available Lost -£10
Melodic Motion looks the stand-out in here. He gets the trip well, looks well treated by the weights in here and also has the draw in stall 4. The form of his last run has been well franked by a horse he beat and although the favourite in here he is in my opinion very much worthy of that tag. He will need to break well but I see no reason why he won’t providing his jockey gets it right.
6.25 Chelmsford – Never Folding 12-1 Bet365 4places Placed +£25
A low grade handicap over 1m however I quite simply have to put Never Folding up. He has a huge amount of ability but his quirks mean he is a tough ride. Last time out they got the tactics completely wrong on board however he still ran a good enough race and the performance means the handicapper has dropped him another 2lb. He caught my eye three starts back and then would have gone very close over this C and D two starts back but for trouble in running. That day he ran off 55 and today he runs of 51, he finished 6th that day despite being hampered and the form really stands out. The 2nd home won his next two, the 4th won next time out, the 7th won next time out, the 10th has won his next two and even the 12th won the other day at Kempton of only 2lb lower. 4lb lower in here Never Folding quite simply has to go very close, he needs cover, he needs holding up and he will need luck in running but we have to take that risk. Shane Kelly takes over from Robert Winston which is a like for like change on board.
7.25 Chelmsford – Aleef 5-1 widely available 3places Lost -£10
Aleef looks worth chancing in here. He’s a front runner so is well suited by this track and as one of only three front runners in here (best drawn) he should get the easy lead he desires. He has tumbled down the weights this season however on his most recent start showed a lot more finishing 5th in a hot handicap at Catterick. He is down 2lb for the run which is an extra added bonus and the booking of James Doyle catches the eye. He finished 2nd over this C and D last year in class 2 of 91, today he runs of 83 and is dropped into a class 4. If he gets to the lead then he quite simply should go very close.
8.30 Chelmsford – Debonaire David 11-4 widely available Lost -£10
This looks an ideal opportunity for Debonaire David. He has been in terrific form and after going close at Kempton two starts ago over this trip (had Born to Finish in behind) he then wasn’t beaten far over 7f’s at Wolverhampton. Back at 6f’s tomorrow and left on the same mark he quite clearly has huge claims. My main reason for backing him today is the first time cheek-pieces, this horse looks in need of some more headgear and I am hoping the cheek-pieces will keep his mind on the job early on. He has a fantastic draw in stall 2 and should take all the beating.
9.00 Chelmsford – Banta Bay 15-2 Skybet 4places Placed +£15
Banta Bay looks well worth an each way wager in here. He undoubtedly has more ability than his mark suggests and the fact he is down another 2lb and has cheek-pieces on for the first time all look reasons to get involved today. The form of his Kempton run last time out looks very strong and given he went well at this track the start before that he should find 7f’s around Chelmsford very much in his favour. He has a wide draw which is a slight concern however I’d rather him get behind from a wide draw than be slow away from an inside draw. This represents a drop in grade and I am just hoping they go too quick up front as this horse will be flying at the finish.