Daily Doubles Day 55
19th January 2017
Sgt Mangog – Daily Review
I’ve tried to be fair on this system and went back through all the tips and results since this system first come into operation, which was in early September 2016. I’ve been reviewing this since November 24th 2016 and the system hasn’t had one winner, so I’ve now revised all the figures to include everything since the beginning. After the results, the reader can see the difference between obtaining the best odds guaranteed (BOG) and the SP odds. Please consider these figures carefully when deciding whether to adopt this system, because the difference in the BOG’s and SP’s is a lot!
3 bets today…no winning bets, but almost the author’s 1st double-win for 2 months
wincanton 14.10 twenty eight guns 9/4 (1st 11/4) & ludlow 13.20 shanroe in milan 16/1 (2nd 10/1)
ludlow 14.25 un anjou 5/1 (lost) & ludlow 13.20 shanroe in milan 16/1 (2nd 10/1)
wincanton 14.10 twenty eight guns 9/4 (1st 11/4) & southwell 14.00 boater 16/1 (lost)
Figures below include results from Sept 4th 2016 onwards...
Days of betting = 133
avg BOG daily win = 0.76 points per day / avg SP daily win = -0.67
Total bets placed so far = 383 Total wins so far = 12
Strike Rate is 3.13% Loss Rate is 96.87%
BOG figures – profit 482.6 points – 383 bets = +99.6. A start bank of £1000 would mean that is now £1099.60. If you’re just doing no specific bank, just the straight 1 point bet every double-bet, then that’s an R.O.I. of 126%. If you use the start bank of £1000, the R.O.I. on that would stand at 9.96%
SP figures – profit 295.32 points – 383 bets = -87.68. A start bank of £1000 would mean that is now £912.32. If you’re just doing no specific bank, just the straight 1 point bet every double-bet, then that’s an R.O.I. of 77.1%. If you use the start bank of £1000, the R.O.I. on that would stand at -8.77%
It is essential to get the BOG for the tips, for sure! I’ve included a table below of his 12 winning bets (4th September 2016 to the present day) and the returns on each bets with BOG’s and SP’s. The last winning bet was on 19th November.
|date||course||time||horse||BOG odds||SP’s||BOG returns||SP returns||difference|
|6 sept||leic||15.30||faithful mount||*||5/1||£62.00||£33.00||-£29.00|
|redcar||14.50||kenny the captain||*||9/2F|
|8 sept||doncaster||15.05||simple verse||*||3/1||£29.00||£16.00||-£13.00|
|21 sept||redcar||14.45||moi moi moi||*||2/1F||£2.00||£2.00||£0.00|
|24 oct||redcar||17.30||tricky dickey||*||7/4F||£48.50||£16.50||-£32.00|
|8 nov||newcastle||17.45||testa rossa||*||7/1||£29.00||£19.00||-£10.00|
|9 nov||ayr||15.40||viva shove||*||11/8F||£23.00||£10.69||-£12.31|
|19 nov||wolves||18.45||mythical madness||*||4/1||£70.50||£55.00||-£15.50|
|19 nov||wolves||18.45||mythical madness||*||4/1||£5.60||£4.00||-£1.60|
There is a big difference between the BOG and SP returns, £187.28 to be precise, which is a loss of over £15 per race if the S.P’s were taken instead.
The PRO’S for this system appear to be providing a punter can get the early odds, then any returns are usually quite good. The tipster has had some very nice-priced single winners, but the 2nd horse didn’t oblige. And I think I spoke before about the possibility of not only betting the “double”, but bet each horse singularly as well – this proved to be losing in the long run, so I wouldn’t advise this. There was a time in December when no single horses won for more than 40 races on the trot.As you can see, 7/12 winners had favourites included within the double-bet – the BOG prices varied a lot from the SP’s, so much so, that I felt it necessary to show how important getting those early prices are. I receive the email tips around 9pm and unless anyone is making a bet at that time, then the prices are not easy to come by later (especially the following day). As an example, the September 6th result had winners’ S.P.’s of 5/1 & 9/2, which equals a 33/1 double, but the BOG prices gave a return of nearly double that.
The negatives, if I can call them that, probably outweigh the pro’s, but these really depend on the punter. Having quite a long losing run in any system demands punter-patience (I know what I’m talking about…been there many times), it’s frustrating and often means deviating from the system – which would prove catastrophic after you have changed the system selected horse for your own, ultimately to see the system’s horse flying past the finishing post first, laughing at you as it does so! So, patience is a “must” for this. Also, you have to ask yourself if you’d be available as soon as you get the tips by email to put the bet on, and any punter would need open accounts with the betting companies involved…at this stage, possibly 4 accounts – bet365, William Hill, betvictor and Ladbrokes to name some. If you can’t get the BOG’s, referring to the table above, that shows a long-term loss. In the winning bets above, and so far the strike rate isn’t very high, there were 7 favourites in the selections, these were at 9/2, 2/1, 5/2, 5/2, 7/4, 11/8, 11/8, as well as 2 non-runner bets, so pessimistically, one could say just 10 winners.
I’m not knocking the author of this system – he has had some really good-priced winners singularly, but to me I believe the “Daily Doubles” needs a lot of patience. It’s hard enough to find one winner of a race, let alone two, so the system is already up against it…but the BOG figures speak for themselves. It appears to be working as long as the punter can get the early odds and be prepared for long losing sequences. I noticed some of the losing horses’ odds might have gotten a BOG of say 10/1, but the SP returned at say 20/1...those horses lost by a long way. Other selections have had a BOG of say 10/1 and the SP returned 7/2 or 4/1…a higher percentage of these horses ran a good race, coming somewhere in the first four places. It might suggest, as many people already realise, that owners/trainers/tipsters/punters must get an inkling about certain horses, and then the word gets out, and it’s not just one tipster who gets to hear of it…so the money goes on the horse from various sources, pushing the SP down – that is a “tip” in itself. It also suggests by-passing any “tipsters” advice, and punters’ doing their own research to find the BOG’s, then comparing those to the market forces before the race…just an idea.
Regards, Sgt Mangog
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