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Layers Of Profit Mk II – Days 59 to 66

Hello constables,

Trial details

Lay on exchange (using Betfair here) with max odds of 4.0

Starting bank was 35 pts (£350) using 1 pt = £10

Days 59 to 66

Bank at start of day : 49.04 pts (£490.40)

Selections  :

 Date Time Course Selection BFSP (Lay) Position Profit 08/09/2010 05:50 Kempton Till Dawn 2.76 4th/8 0.95 09/09/2010 08:15 Kempton Hamloola 2.42 5th/11 0.95 10/09/2010 03:05 Chester Hoot 5.7 5th/8 No bet 11/09/2010 05:50 Goodwood Bronze Beau 3.34 2nd/6 0.95 12/09/2010 04:55 Goodwood Regal Park 5.6 1st/13 No bet 13/09/2010 04:50 Musselburgh Cayman Fox 2.8 4th/12 0.95 14/09/2010 05:00 Haydock Switched Off 3.62 1st/13 -2.62 15/09/2010 07:40 Kempton Countrywide Flame 3.3 9th/11 0.95

Profit/Loss : +2.13 pts (+£21.30)

Cummultative Profit/Loss : +16.17 pts (+£161.70)

New Bank : 51.17 pts (£511.70)

To lay at 4.0 or not?

The figures above all reflect the maximum lay price of 4.0.

There have been a number of horses that have ended up as no bets due to their price starting off at more than 4.0 on the exchange.  So, looking at another angle, I have investigated the results if you were to request different odds before the off – the price would either be matched straight away, or if not, left to be matched in running.

Below is a table where I have selected certain odds and show the clear profit if you had selected those odds throughout :

 Odds Pts Profit 1.5 5.5 2.1 13.05 2.6 17.6 3.2 22.79 3.6 24.54 4 26.17 5 28.37 Any 29.27 Main 16.17

For example, if you had tried to lay every horse at 3.6 (whether matched before the off, matched in play or even not matched at all), you would be 24.54 pts (£245.54) in profit.

To clarify, the ‘Any’ is just laying every horse at BFSP regardless of price, and ‘Main’ refers to how I am reviewing it, e.g. the BFSP has to be less than 4.0 at the start otherwise the horse is a no-bet.

Hope this isn’t confusing – different people prefer to bet in different ways and for those that like an in-running bet, or those that want to see how a system performs without price constraints, I thought it might come in useful.

Cheers,

Sgt Rob.