Sgt Tony-Reviews Laying Winter Profits
Laying Winter Profits has been an interesting system to review, as it concentrates on a specific method for laying horses specifically for the three ‘winter’ months of December, January and February. The author of the system, Chris Castell, also has 3 other seasonal systems, thereby covering the whole year in the four ‘seasons’. Laying Autumn Profits (which I have already reviewed) covers the three months of September, October and November, Laying Summer Profits covers the three months of June, July and August and Laying Spring Profits (which I am currently reviewing) covers the three months of March, April and May. The author claims that the success of his seasonal systems lies in the fact that he is accounting for changing conditions throughout the year by only looking at the short term monthly or quarterly conditions. He has also asked me to bear in mind that he would like the four packages to be considered as one year around system, thus if a loss were to be incurred in one season it may well be offset by the profits of the other three systems. That said, I will obviously be reviewing it in isolation!
The author of Laying Winter Profits says that the staking plan he offers his clients is able to increase the profitability of his systems considerably, although we shall be using the level staking system of £100 per point for our review period, this is what is recorded on the Laying Winter Profits website and the Betfair commission of 5% is deducted. On that basis, a winning £100 stake produces a profit of £95. the author of Laying Winter Profits also now uses the published Betfair SP prices to record the results, rather than the odds that he is able to get using his betting bot.
This review of Laying Winter Profits started on 1 December, and the first month only selected horses from National Hunt races (all types, except Novice Handicap Chases). Due to the appalling weather, there were no selections at all for the first nine days and we then lost a further 6 days between 19th and 26th December, meaning that we lost 15 racing days out of 31! In addition, there were 9 other days in December when the system had no qualifying selections – which means that there were only 8 days in December when the system actually had qualifying selections at all! It was no surprise then to find out that the system made a loss of -3.10 points at level stakes for December.
January saw the selections move to include those on the All Weather (Kempton, Lingfield and Southwell, but NOT Wolverhampton) and National Hunt races (except Handicap Hurdles, Novice Hurdles, Novice Handicap Chases and Novice Chases), which gave a bigger range to choose from (although there were a couple of days in December when even the ‘all weather’ racing was called off due to bad weather!). I was abroad for the whole of January, so I am not sure if any days were lost to the weather completely, but there were 9 days in January when there were no qualifying selections. Leaving all of that aside for a moment, Laying Winter Profits made a loss of -4.04 points at level stakes for January.
February saw the system move back to concentrate only on National Hunt races, with the exception of Handicap Hurdles, Novice Handicap Hurdles and National Hunt Flat (NHF) races. I was abroad for most of February, but don’t think that we experienced any severe weather problems, although there were ten days when there were no qualifying selections. The system made a profit of 5.00 points at level stakes for February.
Here are the statistics for the 3 months:
|Selections 96/72 Winning Lays = 75% Strike Rate|
|Profit and Loss = minus 2.14 points|
|Average Price of Selection = 4.71 BSP|
|Average Price of Losing Lays = 3.94 BSP|
|Longest Winning Run = 11 (once)|
|Longest Losing Run = 3 (once)|
As can be seen from the figures the longest losing run was 3 selections, which happened only once, there was winning runs (i.e. the selection lost the race!) of 11, 8, 7, 6 and similar over the three months. In summary, the system is very easy to use, has relatively low risk as can be seen from the average odds of 3.94 for losing lays , but it did end up with a small loss of 2.14 points . That said, a loss over the three month review period cannot be ignored, it could almost be considered a neutral case but of course we no longer have that and anyway as i shall be doing an overall review of all 4 seasonal packages as one, all is not lost as a minus 2.14 points could be easily made up by the remaining Spring and Summer Laying Profit reviews.
Throughout the whole review period, Chris Castell has been extremely helpful in answering all my questions, has responded to all of my emails promptly and efficiently and has always delivered the selections accurately and on time. He has also published all the results quickly and accurately. The results over recent years have been consistently profitable and you do not have to sit at the PC all day watching the racing, as you get the selections the night before racing (or just make your own selections from the manual) and can simply place your bets using the recommended Betfair SP odds limits.
Laying Winter Profits costs £97 to purchase, which would increase the loss by another point. If you had opted to receive the monthly selections by email at a cost of £97 per month, this would have increased the loss even further. Laying Winter Profits is very well written and easy to follow, so I would not personally have opted to receive the selections, but that choice is obviously up to the individual.