This was a Free Trial for all blog Subscribers, Tips were be sent out each day via email by 12:30.
Kevin’s Lays are something a little different with very low priced Lays and a bonus Lay Service which targets Odds on selections.
The trial lasted 1 month. With 3 – 6 months of proofing.
Now i will pass you over to Kevin who many of you will already know from the blog, He has trialed many of the systems already in the Passed and Failed sections.
Over to you Kev.
I thought I’d give a bit of background to my lays.
I’ve been doing my lays for about 6 months but it was only making around 10 points profit a month. During July I started to use some extra information and this had a very positive effect on profits. I don’t have this information prior to that time so my results are only from when I started using this extra information. What I was attempting to do was be quite selective and keep odds (and therefore my liability) quite low.
Originally all results were based on if the selection was readily available under 4.00, but after thinking how the trial would run I’ve decided that it will be based on Betfair SP. This has reduced the profit slightly but I already know that a lot of the selections drift and I will end up with some people getting matched and others not getting matched and therefore a lot of inconsistancies with my results compared to a lot of people on the trial. So whilst anybody can place their bet at any time the results will be done based on Betfair SP and so if you wish to replicate the results please place your bets using Betfair SP and specify maximum odds as you require (more on maximum odds below).
While I was going back over my results and changing them based on Betfair SP I noticed that most of the selections that had drifted still lost so I’ve analysed all of them and the good news for anyone who wants a little more action and/or is happy with slightly higher odds is that they produce even better profits. There is no difference in the selection process as a selection will only qualify where a horse is forecast or looks like it will go off under 4.00, but as the selections are done before racing starts I obviously have no control over the odds.
Anyway my recommendation is to use 4.00 as the maximum odds but I will report p/l using 4.00, 5.00 and 6.00 as maximum odds during the trial. While there have been an average of 2 to 3 selections per day (depending on the maximum odds used) some days there will be none that qualify with maximum odds of 4.00.
The odds on lays will start later in the week. I have more history on these, but I didn’t used to do them weekends as weekends tend to be a lot more competitive but I realise that many of you will want to follow them at weekends as well so I am going back and checking weekends and once I have the information I will report on profit doing all and also maybe excluding weekends. I will also give a bit more background to my odds on lays at that time.
Please Do not hesitate to download my past results in Excel format by pressing the excel Icon below.
Well it’s just left with me to wish you all good luck following my selections.
Kevin
Video how to place bets using Betfair SP – Link
Video of how to set odds limit on Betfair SP – Link
Kevin’s Odds On Lay Selections – Information
I’ve been looking at odds on lays for some time now but never been able to get anywhere without using say Fibonacci staking plan which can be very risky. Certainly without being selective you can get a very long run of winners.
I started using this selection process back in May and I must state that this won’t be for everybody as you do still get some long winning runs, but it does make a profit at level stakes (only shown for illustration purposes) which is my yard stick for if a system/selection process is worth following.
The selection process for these odds on selections is totally different to the process used for my normal lays. For starters all races are used, whereas for my normal lays I only use handicap races. Although the selection process identifies quite a few potential selections the actual number of selections that end up qualifying is fairly limited. I’ve done no analysis of selections that end up going off at 2.00 or above as my overall intention was to have pure odds on selections and hence why I use a maximum Betfair SP of 1.99. The reason for using Betfair SP is pretty much the same as the reason I use it for my normal lays in that it removes all ambiguity.
As I said you will get some reasonably long winning and losing runs and if you look at the results that will be uploaded here shortly September hasn’t been a great month for the odds on lays, although the 2 losers on 29th helped recover some of the the profit. As I mentioned above I’ve only really included level stakes profit so that you can see how it performs, but I would definitely say it’s best to use % liability and I’ve included 2 sets of figures – 1 using 5% liability and another using 10% liability. Personally I think 10% liability is probably too risky but you will see that the bank has never really been at risk and the profits are quite impressive from relatively few selections.
End Of Trial Summary
Kevs Low Lays Trial as i stated from the beggining will be judged on the results for lays upto 4.00 and the bonus selections. And i am happy to say Kevin has really impressed in the 35 day trial and of course also with his full service which provides lays upto 6.oo BSP.
Kevs Low Lays upto 4.00
Profit/loss:- -3.70points
5% liability -£47.66 (bank £952.34)
Average odds:- 3.28
Average winning odds:- 3.36
Odds on Bonus Selections
Profit/loss:- +8.08points
5% liability +£564.33 (bank £1564.33)
Average odds:- 1.70
Average winning odds:- 1.55
It is worth noting that the +4.38 points results below is purely theoretical as it is impossible to place flat stake bets as Kevins tips are To BSP which has to be worked out at a liability and Kev results are based on 5% liablity.
Totals
Profit/loss:- +4.38 points
5% liability +£516.67 (bank £1516.67)
Fantastic!
