Hi Bloggers.
Another selection today and here is what they said this morning:
“Worcester 16:20 – Victory Surge
Hails from the top yard of Jonjo O’Neill and ridden by Champion Jockey A P McCoy, Selection is likely to go off short on his Chasing debut here today. However, there are a few negatives that make him opposable. His only win has come in a 2 mile hurdle race last December. It is unknown whether he will take to larger obstacles having never jumped a fence in public. Suitability of track is unknown as he has only visited Worcester once and was pulled up. Untried at today’s distance (2m 7f) with 2m 5f the furthest he has run before (he was favourite that day and finished 7th, 24 lengths behind the winner). Never tackled today’s Good to Firm going (win was in Soft ground). Not run for nearly 3 months so fitness form and wellbeing are taken on trust. Carries 11st 12lbs today which is more weight than he’s ever carried before. Speed figures are also in decline. Trainer’s record in Chases here is respectable but favourites do have a low strike rate in Handicap Chases at the course. Others in the race have proven ability and we recommend lay subject to maximum odds of 6.0″
Despite having God’s own jockey on board, the selection was pulled up and was ranked 11th out of the 11 runners at a Betfair SP of 8.40 (the ISP was 7/1). This returned us a profit for the day of £38.00 or 1 point at level stakes, leaving our cumulative bank standing at £2,141.20 – a profit to date of £141.20 or 3.93 points at level stakes.
I noticed some comments concerning the author’s post about using the 10% liability staking method. Whilst I understand the comments, the authors do offer 4 different staking methods and suggest that you pick the one that best suits your attitude to risk. The higher the risk you are prepared to accept, the higher the returns will be in any form of speculation – but the potential losses are obviously higher as well – hence the whole risk/reward equation. It was for that reason that I opted to use the level stakes method. I cannot say strongly enough that no staking plan is right or wrong – you just have to pick the one that makes the most sense to you and your particular circumstances.
Until the next time…..
Kind regards
Tony
