Hi Bloggers
Like buses, you get nothing for a while and then two come along at once. We got sent two selections today and this is what the information told us:
“2 Selections today. REMEMBER WE ARE BACKING THESE HORSES TO LOSE.
Newbury 18:50 – Lady Lam
Consistent filly from Sylvester Kirk’s yard is forecast favourite in this open looking handicap. However, there are a few negatives that make her opposable. Upped in Class (today is a Class 5), her 2 wins have been at Classes 6 & 7 and she has never performed at this level. Untried at Newbury and only previous attempt at a galloping track saw her finish 11th of 12. Has been running over 7 & 8 furlongs with both wins at a mile. Therefore today’s distance of 10 furlongs isn’t is guaranteed to suit her. Speed figures are also in decline. Trainer’s record in this age group here is zero wins from 12 attempts. The race looks fairly open and we recommend lay subject to maximum odds of 5.5
Chepstow 19:35 – Tagseed
Completed his hat trick at Redcar last month and his consistent & much improved form should see him go off short today. There are however a few negatives that mean he can be opposed. Had to work much harder in his last race to hold on by a neck and handicapper has still raised him 4lbs. He has been upped in Class today and whilst he has been improving, this is much tougher than the races he was contesting less than 2 months ago. Untried at Chepstow so course suitability unknown. His 3 wins have all been over 7 furlongs and previous attempts at a lower class in today’s distance (6F) have resulted in defeat. Trainer has not won at the track in the last 5 years and favourites have a low strike rate in 4YO+ handicaps here. We recommend lay subject to maximum odds of 4.5
The Chepstow selection, Tagseed, was declared a non runner, so that left us with Lady Lam at Newbury. The selection came in 10th out of 11 runners at a Betfair SP of 8.98 and an ISP of 13/2. Although they do give a recommended lay maximum, they advise you to use your own risk factors in deciding whether to bet or not. Their results include all losing bets, so I shall follow the same principle.
Our selection therefore made us a profit of £38.00 (£40 less Betfair commission) or 1 point at level stakes.
The bank now stands at £2,114.00 giving us a profit to date of £114.00 or 3 points at level stakes.
Let’s hope for more of the same tomorrow.
Enjoy the weekend
Kind regards
Tony
