RebelBetting Day 6
23rd May
Hi Bloggers,
I’ve had some feedback from the authors.
- “There is a risk of RebelBetting being too popular. We don’t consider this to be a huge problem as of yet, but it will be in the future as more and more subscribers join.” They are considering several options for the future to avoid this.
- I asked about rounding to 5, rather than to 1 to avoid attention from Bookmakers: “They won’t disappear, but small arbs or small stakes will be harder to place evenly on all sides. Most arbs should still be valid, but you might get more money on one side than another because of rounding problems”
- They gave me a fix for entering into the spreadsheet an arb with two back bets and one lay bet. I won’t go into the detail at this point.
- They have confirmed that the number of arbs decreases during the summer and especially in July so we will have to bear that in mind during the review
Much quieter today. Very few football matches, but I was disappointed there weren’t any arbs on other sports, especially with the start of the French Open.
I had my first serious dip in odds at one bookmaker after I’d confirmed the other bet, So I accepted the new low odds. This has created an unbalanced arb where if the home team wins I lose 6.95 points. If the away team wins I make a profit of 6.31 points. But even if it loses I should make up the loss in the next two or three arbs. As it was, during the day, I got another couple of arbs on the same match, so they should offset the loss to a large extent and of course the away team might win!
Here are all the arbs for today, All terms are described in the RebelBetting manual. CM=Cross Market Arb; EU=European handicap; AH=Asian Handicap; Moneyline or 3-Way= 1×2 match odds; 2-Way=Draw No Bet; Middle=Arb where max profit is made if the middle option (eg Draw) wins.
| Day | Arb Type | Total Stake | Actual Return | %age Return |
| Day 6 23/5/11 | CM Team1(2-Way) Team2(AH0) | 99.70 | -6.95 | -6.97% |
| CM Team1(AH0.25) Team1(LAY AH0) Team2(3-Way) | 100.00 | 3.34 | 3.32% | |
| Over 2.5 Under 2.5 | 101.00 | |||
| Team1(AH0) Tem2(AH0) | 99.20 | 2.86 | 2.88% | |
| Over 3.5 Under 3.5 | 102.00 | |||
| Over 3.5 (Back) Over 3.5(Lay) | 101.80 |
So the result I needed went the wrong way! But I recovered most of the loss on the two arbs on the same match. A net loss of only 0.75 points and I have three arbs waiting which should all make a profit.
Here is today’s spreadsheet of balances:
| Type | Amount | % |
| Total Deposits/Withdrawals | 2000.00 | 91.63% |
| Total in Play | 304.03 | 13.93% |
| Total Bonuses | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| Total Arb Profit | 182.58 | 8.37% |
| Total Bankroll | 2182.58 | 100.00% |
This includes the extra (mistake) profit of 112.32 from 21st May. But without this, I’m still in profit by £70.26
Cheers,
Sgt Rich
