Total Football Trading The Paper Chaser – Days 22 to 24

1st December 2011

Hi Bloggers, Sgt Colin here.

3 days of trading this week.

Day 22 – Monday

Only the single match with any funds traded, and it was a qualifier. Backed Malaga v Villareal @ 1.8, and layed to close out @ 1.79, making a small gain of 0.53 points. Not spectacular – but a gain!

Day 23 – Tuesday

Far more to chose from as this was a Carling Cup and Championship full programme evening, whilst there were a few big league games in the major European leagues. 2 matches qualified.

Chelsea v Liverpool. Layed Chelsea at slight “odds-on” – 1.98, and watched as they drifted in the market to 2.14, when I backed them. They drifted further close to kick off – but I followed the recommended approach – and secured a healthy 7.25 point profit!

Napoli v Juventus. Another match which was strictly “outside the recommended odds” – backing at 2.56 and laying at 2.58 making a small loss (0.76 points). At one point this was comfortably in the money, but I missed the opportunity to close out.

A very good day then.

Day 24 – Wednesday

Another day with plenty of action, with Carling Cup and Europa Cup matches to chose from. 3 matches qualified – and all three traded profitably.

Athletico Madrid @ Celtic. Madrid were backed at 2.20, and shortened to 2.04 when I closed out. One of our best ever trades, gaining 7.45 points.

Man U v Crystal Palace. Backed Man U at 1.3, and they shortened steadily to end at 1.28, giving us a 1.48 point gain.

Tottenham v PAOK. Layed Spurs at 1.5, and after a bit of a bouncy ride, closed out at 1.52 – gaining 2.5 points.

So a cracking day, gaining 11.43 points.

21 trading days gone for The Paper Chaser
50 selections, 28 winners, 18 losers, 4 break-even (56% hit rate).
Cumulative gain 77.57 points,
Betting bank 1077.6 (from 1000 start point).
ROI (based on 5000 points invested) – +1.55%.

Note that the average gain on winning trades is 4.25 points, whilst the stop loss mechanic means that the average loss on a losing trade has been 2.18 points. 14 winning days, 1 break even, 6 losing days. 3 monitored but no bets.

I’ve done a quick calculation of the Return on Investment if we assume that the investment is the total number of points risked on each trade – i.e. the number of points which are lost if the stop loss is applied. This makes this approach look considerably more attractive, as the total investment on the 50 trades has been 183.2 points. A gain of 77.57 points represents a “Return on Risk Investment” of 42.3%.

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Sgt Colin – Total Football Trading The Paper Chaser