The Football 30 Day Review
24th December 2016
Sgt Matt – Reviews The Football Formula
So, we’re 30 days into the trial with Football Formula and we’re currently £32.78 in the red. I thought it would be good to look at some the selections over the last 30 days broken down and give some feedback regarding the trial so far.
So the selections are primarily done on the win market and over 2.5 goals market, with the exception of 2 bets which were for under 2.5 goals. Below is the breakdown of the results so far;
Week One
Over 2.5 Goals (12 Bets) £13.68
Win (13 Bets) -£12.36
(£1.32)
Week Two
Under 2.5 (2 Bets) -£4.00
O 2.5 (9 Bets) £4.90
Win (9 Bets) £5.10
(£6.00)
Week Three
Over 2.5 (10 Bets) £11.90
Win (10 Bets) -£32.60
(-£20.70)
Week Four
Over 2.5 (8 Bets) -£16.90
Win (8 Bets) -£1.00
(-£15.90)
Week Five (3 Days)
Over 2.5 Goals (2 Bets) -£3.50
Win (5 Bets) £0.00
(-£3.50)
Totals
Over 2.5 Goals (41 Bets) £10.08
Win (45 Bets) -£38.86
Under 2.5 Goals (2 Bets) -£4.00
Total -£32.78
A few points to the breakdown of selections that I noted;
– Obviously week 3 on the win selections has had a big impact on the month results.
– Over 2.5 goals selections do seem to fairly well, with a profit 3 out of the 4 completed weeks. If you look at the results in the losing week, the Schalke bet was unlucky to lose with the game being 1-1 and over 25 attempts on goal.
Personal View
I’m a firm believer that in order to profit in betting, it vital you only take bets with value and so far there have been a number of bets I personally wouldn’t deem as value, especially within the win market selections.
I find it very hard to get value out of any football bet, which is below 1.60 minimum in general. The average selection over the last 30 odd days is 1.63. However, lets just quickly look at the win market selections for odds below 1.60 over the trial.
8 Losing bets = -£80.00
13 Winning bets = £63.64
Total Bets 21 = -£16.66
Obviously there is alot more to determine whether a bet is value, apart from the price being under 1.60, however as you can see despite having more winning bets, its still down £16.66.
I have also noted there are similar bets available to the win market & over 2.5 goals markets, which offer better prices, which I’ve noted examples of below;
– Hoffenheim v Dortmund O2.5 Goals was priced at 1.47. Due to the teams being closely matched it was very unlikely one team would win 3-0, so if your taking Over 2.5 goals, look at Over 2.5 goals and BTTS at 1.66. This has happened on a number of occasions (Man City v Arsenal recently) and every time the over 2.5 goals bet has won, the BTTS & Over 2.5 goals has also won. Like I said, this is just purely on evenly priced game.
– On the win markets, you would be better looking at Asian Handicap -0.50 or 0.75- in some case.
– Look at taking bets in play, if price isnt great. This obviously takes a risk of an early goal.
To summarise, it’s been a difficult and frustrating month for the Football Formula, however if you look at the points raised above am pretty sure over the course of time you would see constant profits. Lets hope the bad spell is behind them and the next 2 months see a return to profits.
I hope everyone has a Happy Christmas & New Year.
Thank you for your time and I hope you enjoy the review.
[Click here tosee The Football Formula ]
Regards, Sgt Matt
