Arbitrage Betting – Fact or Fiction?
20th August 2011
Hello everyone,
As you know, we have been reviewing Rebel Betting here on BST, and Sergeant Rich is doing an excellent job of trying to separate fact from fiction in the world of Arbitrage betting.
I have been very impressed, as I have always thought that successful Arbitrage betting was just a myth, but to date the review is showing that, whilst not without its problems, it appears possible to make money from Arbitrage betting.
Today I received this letter in our helpdesk. It is from Tim, and he wanted to share with me his real life experiences when trying Arbitrage betting.
Tim has kindly given me permission to share his letter with our readers, and I do so, not to try and cast any doubt over the results of our review, but simply to try and start a sensible debate about Arbitrage.
Here is Tim’s letter, please do read it, and feel free to offer your own thoughts via the comments option.
“Hi
I have had great pleasure in reading all your emails.
However, I felt I must contact you after receiving this latest email, regarding the Rebel Betting software and comments on Arbitrage betting.
I have had extensive experience with Arbitrage betting and whilst in the short term everything may be looking great using this or any other reputable software…things can and will go very wrong.
I certainly don’t have any current vested interest, having cast aside this trading method a good 18 months ago – but boy did I learn whilst I was involved with it!
The biggest and most incorrect statement that is always made on this subject is that it is “100% safe and risk free”…..utter rubbish!
Here is what “they” don’t tell you:
The bookmakers are totally aware of arbitrage practice – and constantly on the look out for it. They WILL limit your account VERY quickly WITHOUT
notice, if they suspect arbing activity on your account. Now when this happens, you could be very well be in the middle of making the bets; just about to place the 2nd part of your arb for example, when… lo and behold, they refuse to accept or limit the stake required to put down in order to avoid exposure from bet No.1…
Now you don’t need to have a winning account for them to limit you – they only need to see the bets coming in ( in some cases only 3 or 4 )
and they put the bar put up. ( Bet 365 and Stan James are prime examples of this).
Many bookies do not show you the liquidity on a given market, for example: – after bet no.1 has been accepted by bookmaker no.1 on the favorite ( you always place the bet requiring the largest stake, first i.e the favourite ) – the 2nd bookmaker (on many occasions ), will not permit the stake amount required (… NEEDED..) to place on the 2nd bet, due to low liquidity on that particular event or team etc… leaving you totally over exposed with bet No.1….and with a “slight ” problem on your hands!
Once an arb has been found, you have to be very very quick with making the calculations and the bets ( I was lucky with this as I had some very good /expensive software ), as the Odds are always subject to change: Its not a problem when you are about to place your 1st bet and you find that bookmaker no.1 has altered his odds – thus nullifying the arb – you can after all, go back to searching or waiting for the next one to come in –
BUT (…and this happens ALOT ) if the odds of the 2nd bookmaker changes AFTER you have placed the first bet with bookie no.1 – this will totally mess up the arb and leave you facing (yet again !) a big risk with the first bet already placed. At least if your account isn’t limited, or there is adequate liquidity, you can trade out, albeit with a much lower profit – or trade out with a loss….
Now you may be lucky and get away without any of the above experiences (early on) but all the above pale into insignificance with the next “trick” up the bookmakers sleeve…….
They can and will CANCEL your bet……WITHOUT notice. ( If it hasn’t happened yet…IT WILL )
This is a perfectly legal manouver on their part – all they have to state ( as per their terms and conditions ) is that the incorrect odds
were being shown……yes they can ( allegedly ) make a mistake and get away with it!! Amazing .
They can do no more than JUST THAT to set you well and truly on the road to financial ruin. The worst bookmaker for this in my experience was… Totesport.
You may get an email from a friendly bookmaker stating in advance this has happened (…5Dimes… thank you !) but you had better be constantly on-guard with your e-mails otherwise you are well and truly cooked.
Mainly you will get no warning. Picture this; you check back later, full of anticipation, after having placed a lovely arb the day before. You find surprisingly, that the bookies account you expected to be £200 lighter… is not -they have returned your stake – and ..guess what?… bookie no.2 – took your stake -and what’s more, is keeping it (thank you very much) because that bet LOST. This of course may go the other way – if you are lucky – but hold on a minute…This WAS supposed to be 100% safe and risk free…wasn’t it?
I have traded arbs between bookies using several different currencies ( GBP, EURO, DOLLAR ) and have traded between Asian handicaps/handicaps odds along with conventional odds… in order to find that elusive “edge”.
I have to also point out that the more people using the same software will inevitably result in fewer arbs for those users, due to the demand on those events “flagged”, affecting the odds etc..
And…if you are adverse to keeping good records and accounts….forget it…
In my opinion, even by some miracle you avoid the above pitfalls, it simply is not worth spending the time in relation to what is returned…unless of course this activity is your passion and you have nothing better to do!!
I gave up after total frustration from numerous experiences with the examples shared with you and losing money in the process.
You may rightly say that my confidence in the whole process is shot to ribbons….
Please excuse me if I come across a little bitter, well ….after having been promised the earth and forking out thousands I guess I have a small right to be –
but I do get a good feeling writing this in the hope(?), that you will be pointing out the pitfalls to your readers with your next correspondence.
Many thanks and I look forward to more interesting articles and reports from you.
All the best
Cheers
Tim”
Please let us know what you think.
Regards,
Gordon
