Hi Bloggers
An unusual day in that we had TWO selections. Here is what we were advised:
Carlisle 15:00 – More Than Many
2 wins from 3 careers starts sees this colt from Richard Fahey’s yard as forecast favourite. There are, however, a few negatives to oppose him. Untried at Carlisle so course suitability is unknown. Raised 12lbs for his last win (which was in April last year) he carries 9st 13lbs today which is almost a stone more than previous biggest weight. Has not been seen on track for 15 months which suggests he’s had some problems. His form, wellbeing and fitness and therefore unknown. Trainer has a good record in these races here (although others have better ones) and favourites aged 4YO+ in handicaps at the track do have a low strike rate. The concern is that connections may have been very patient and he is tuned to run well. However, there are a couple of rivals that look to have his measure and we recommend lay subject to maximum odds of 5.5
Pontefract 15:15 – Northside Prince
A 2nd placed finish in April along with the booking of Kieren Fallon is likely to see Selection go off short here. However, there are a few negatives that mean he is opposable. Still a maiden, his only previous visit to Pontefract saw him beaten 15 lengths. His Official Rating has remained fairly consistent between 65 & 68 (currently 67) but he carries 10st today which is a career high. Not run for 66 days so fitness and form are taken on trust (it’s also worth noting that his few good performances have been after a recent outing). Trainer’s strike rate here is OK but Kieren Fallon rides for the first time. Looks competitive where cases can be made for several runners. We recommend lay subject to maximum odds of 5.0
We had unusual results as well! The first selection at Carlisle rolled in 7th out of 13 runners but finished at a Betfair SP of 14.06 (ISP 8/1) – it was around 5.50 when I layed it this morning! The second selection at Pontefract did not read the instructions and finished 1st of the 11 runners at a Betfair SP of 5.54 (ISP 9/2). We therefore ended up with a profit of £38.00 on the first selection and a loss of £181.60 on the second selection.
Overall that left us with a loss for the day of -£143.60 or -3.54 points at level stakes. Our cumulative bank started at £2,000 and now stands at £2,073.6 giving us a profit for the trial to date of £73.60 or 2.39 points at level stakes.
Let’s hope for a better result tomorrow
Kind regards
Tony
