Soccer Overs – Day 28
31st October – Day 28
As promised, I’m showing a 28 day review with all the results so far.
Oops! I managed to nominate two days as Day 3, early in the review. So the last post – Day 27 was actually Day 28!
Here is a table of the complete tips and results. The Odds column shows the odds quoted in the Soccer Overs e-mails. The Best Odds column shows the highest odds I could find on the recommended Bookies. The next column shows the best odds I could get on Betfair.
The recommended stake is £10 to a £100 bank and the P/L column shows the results based upon the e-mail quoted odds. In practice, on average, you could have done slightly better looking for best odds. The bookies recommended to check on BetExplorer.com are Bet365, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power, Expekt, Bwin, Nordic Bet, Betsson, Interwetten, Victor Chandler, Boylesports, Canbet, Stan James, Pinnacle, 10Bet, 188Bet, 12Bet, Sporting Bet, After the first three days I started looking for Best odds and report them below. The Betfair odds also average slightly better, but the Betfair P/L has to take into account the 5% commission. The advantage of using Betfair is that your staking pot can be in just one account instead of being spread across multiple bookies. The liquidity on Betfair has been very low on some of the more obscure matches and the more people there are subscribing to Soccer Overs, the tighter the odds will become.
Another note of caution, is that just before we started this review, the results that Dave has released to me show a bad run. He tweaked his selection criteria and the results since the 4th Oct reflect this ambition of improving the success rate.
The tips are all in the Over 2.5 Goals market. The days where there are no tips were cup days where Dave had no league form to use.
| Odds | Best | Betfair | Result | Stake | W/L | P/L | Betfair | |||
| Odds | Odds | P/L | ||||||||
| 04/10/10 | ||||||||||
| Viking v Stromgodset (Norway) | 1.60 | 1.61 | 3-1 | £10.00 | W | £6.00 | £5.80 | |||
| Jonkopings v Ljungskile (Sweden) | 1.72 | 1.69 | 0-3 | £10.00 | W | £7.20 | £6.56 | |||
| Schaffhausen v Kriens (Switzerland) | 1.63 | 1.63 | 0-0 | £10.00 | L | -£10.00 | -£10.00 | |||
| 09/10/10 | ||||||||||
| Hameenlinna v RoPS (Finland) | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1-2 | £10.00 | W | £8.00 | £7.60 | |||
| 10/10/10 | £0.00 | |||||||||
| Skive v Naestved (Denmark) | 1.67 | 1.64 | 3-3 | £10.00 | W | £6.70 | £6.08 | |||
| AB Copenhagen v Koge (Denmark) | 1.70 | 1.72 | 4-0 | £10.00 | W | £7.00 | £6.84 | |||
| TNS v Aberystwyth (Wales) | 1.55 | 1.50 | 5-0 | £10.00 | W | £5.50 | £4.75 | |||
| 15/10/10 | £0.00 | |||||||||
| Waregem v Club Brugge (Belgium) | 1.72 | 1.72 | 1.72 | 2-3 | £10.00 | W | £7.20 | £6.84 | ||
| Maastricht v Helmond (Netherlands) | 1.67 | 1.75 | 1.79 | 1-4 | £10.00 | W | £6.70 | £7.51 | ||
| Furth v Osnabruck (Germany) | 1.67 | 1.73 | 1.77 | 3-0 | £10.00 | W | £6.70 | £7.32 | ||
| 16/10/10 | ||||||||||
| Scunthorpe v Doncaster | 1.95 | 1.93 | 1-3 | £10.00 | W | £9.50 | £8.84 | |||
| Portsmouth v Watford | 1.90 | 1.93 | 1.90 | 3-2 | £10.00 | W | £9.00 | £8.55 | ||
| Schalke v Stuttgart (Germany) | 1.76 | 1.70 | 1.79 | 2-2 | £10.00 | W | £7.60 | £7.51 | ||
| 17/10/10 | ||||||||||
| Cercle Brugge v Anderlecht (Belgium) | 1.72 | 1.73 | 1.74 | 1-0 | £10.00 | L | -£10.00 | -£10.00 | ||
| Lyngby v Silkeborg (Denmark) | 1.70 | 1.68 | 1.74 | 1-1 | £10.00 | L | -£10.00 | -£10.00 | ||
| Roda v Vitesse (Netherlands) | 1.67 | 1.65 | 1.68 | 4-1 | £10.00 | W | £6.70 | £6.46 | ||
| 18/10/10 | ||||||||||
| Dordrecht v Veendam (Netherlands) | 1.82 | 1.75 | 1.80 | 2-2 | £10.00 | W | £8.20 | £7.60 | ||
| 21/10/10 | ||||||||||
| Helmond v Cambuur (Netherlands) | 1.65 | 1.65 | 1.69 | 2-0 | £10.00 | L | -£10.00 | -£10.00 | ||
| Veendam v Den Bosch (Netherlands) | 1.62 | 1.62 | 1.65 | 1-1 | £10.00 | L | -£10.00 | -£10.00 | ||
| Sittard v Dordrecht (Netherlands) | 1.62 | 1.63 | 1.64 | 1-2 | £10.00 | W | £6.20 | £6.08 | ||
| 22/10/10 | ||||||||||
| Turku PS v Lahti (Finland) | 1.85 | 1.76 | 1.79 | 3-2 | £10.00 | W | £8.50 | £7.51 | ||
| Jonkopings v Landskrona (Sweden) | 1.80 | 1.73 | 1.74 | 4-1 | £10.00 | W | £8.00 | £7.03 | ||
| Midtjylland v Esbjerg (Denmark) | 1.80 | 1.75 | 1.84 | 2-2 | £10.00 | W | £8.00 | £7.98 | ||
| 23/10/10 | ||||||||||
| Brondby v Randers (Denmark) | 1.92 | 1.94 | 1.92 | 2-1 | £10.00 | W | £9.20 | £8.74 | ||
| Lyngby v Horsens (Denmark) | 1.89 | 1.92 | 1.94 | 1-1 | £10.00 | L | -£10.00 | -£10.00 | ||
| Villarreal v Atl Madrid (Spain) | 1.85 | 1.83 | 1.81 | 2-0 | £10.00 | L | -£10.00 | -£10.00 | ||
| 24/10/10 | ||||||||||
| Winterthur v Lugano (Switzerland) | 1.52 | 1.52 | 1.44 | 2-1 | £10.00 | W | £5.20 | £4.18 | ||
| Brann v Kongsvinger (Norway) | 1.44 | 1.44 | 1.44 | 3-1 | £10.00 | W | £4.40 | £4.18 | ||
| Porto v Leiria (Portugal) | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.68 | 5-1 | £10.00 | W | £7.50 | £6.46 | ||
| 25/10/10 | ||||||||||
| Admira v First Vienna (Austria) | 1.45 | 1.45 | 1.38 | 4-1 | £10.00 | W | £4.50 | £3.61 | ||
| FC Lustenau v Gratkorn (Austria) | 1.60 | 1.60 | 1.60 | 1-0 | £10.00 | L | -£10.00 | -£10.00 | ||
| 29/10/10 | ||||||||||
| Bayern v Freiburg (Germany) | 1.67 | 1.67 | 1.68 | 4-2 | £10.00 | W | £6.70 | £6.46 | ||
| Austria Lustenau v Gratkorn (Austria) | 1.65 | 1.67 | 1.64 | 2-1 | £10.00 | W | £6.50 | £6.08 | ||
| Maastricht v Appeldorn (Netherlands) | 1.57 | 1.57 | 1.56 | 1-2 | £10.00 | W | £5.70 | £5.32 | ||
| 30/10/10 | ||||||||||
| LASK Linz v Ried (Austria) | 1.80 | 1.86 | 1.87 | 0-3 | £10.00 | W | £8.00 | £8.27 | ||
| Germinal v St Truiden (Belgium) | 1.80 | 1.83 | 1.85 | 0-0 | £10.00 | L | -£10.00 | -£10.00 | ||
| AS Roma v Lecce (Italy) | 1.77 | 1.77 | 1.82 | 2-0 | £10.00 | L | -£10.00 | -£10.00 | ||
| 31/10/10 | ||||||||||
| Esbjerg v Brondby (Denmark) | 1.89 | 1.89 | 1.88 | 1-2 | £10.00 | W | £8.90 | £8.36 | ||
| St Gallen v Thun (Switzerland) | 1.70 | 1.70 | 1.64 | 2-1 | £10.00 | W | £7.00 | £6.08 | ||
| Club Brugge v St Liege (Belgium) | 1.70 | 1.70 | 1.70 | 2-2 | £10.00 | W | £7.00 | £6.65 | ||
| Average Odds | 1.71 | 1.72 | 1.72 | # of Wins | 30 | |||||
| # of Losses | 10 | Total Profits | ||||||||
| Win %age | 75.00% | £113.30 | £101.21 |
So with both Bookies and Betfair we have over a 100% increase on the original betting pot of £100.
The average odds of 1.71/1.72 reflect a probability of 58% success rate. So the success rate of 75% shows us where the profit is achieved and, so far, validates the value found in Dave’s selections.
In Dave’s Soccer Overs emails he is starting to give some “Paper Trade” tips on the over 3.5 goals market, but his sample size is too small, at the present time, and I suppose it lies outside this review. Likewise he is looking at an intriguing staking plan, but I don’t know if he wants to make that public.
Let’s hope the next 28 days continue this success!
Sgt Rich
