Winning Racing Tips Day 73 – 79
Monday 12th July
Each Way Value:
No selections today, the one race that I came closest to a bet in doesn't
really offer any value each way
Tuesday 13th July
Each Way Value:
6.30 Yarmouth 1. Ahlaain 0.4pt e/w (6/1 Betinternet* 11/2 Bluesquare, 5/1
Ladbrokes*/Bet365*)
With so many newcomers involved there's always gonna be the inevitable
guesswork involved but chances are most will need the run and this ones
fourth place, beaten by 4 1/2 lengths at Newmarket, is the closest any of
these have come to winning a race. If going on from that, it is very hard
not see him involved here.
Result,2nd dwelt, soon tracked winner, led halfway, ridden and headed 1f out,
led again inside final furlong, headed
Wednesday 14th July
Each Way Value:
Ahlaain hit an in-play low of 1.44 yesterday before getting nailed on the
line.
3.30 Lingfield 5. Free As A Lark 0.4pt e/w (11/1 Betinternet* or 8/1
Bet365*/Hills*) You can get 9/1 with Sporting but theres a chance it'll
drift so best use a Best Odds Gauranteed bookie.
Another day another silly price from Betinternet. This is actually value
at 8/1 in my opinion and if you haven't got an account with Betinternet
then open one and take advantage whenever you can.
This race is being being billed as a two horse race which is good news for
each way backers, particulary as Free As A Lark has placed form last time
out. Free As A Lark was only narrowly beaten last time out over 8f at
Yarmouth and although looking at the form in depth it does look on paper
below that of the two market leaders, at the price we can take the risk.
The only others to have a shout look to be two of the newcomers, and
although nothing's certain in this game, I'd take a horse with the form of
Free As A Lark over most newcomers every time.
4.00 Lingfield 6. Freckenham 0.5pt e/w (7/1 Ladbrokes*/Hills*/VCBet*)
This is a race I give only 5 a chance in. Of those 2 are newcomers, 2 are
once raced un-exposed types that are expected to show a degree of
improvement. Then there's Freckenham who has already shown ability when a
closing 3rd last time out, but also has scope for improvement having run
distinctly green. It's a new surface for almost all of these but Freckenham
still looks a nice price on whats she's achieved and would be no surprise
if she turned out decent being out of Exceed and Excel.
Result 4th, Free as a Lark tracked leaders, ridden and kept on same pace final 2f
2nd, Freckenham led after 1f, ridden 2f out, headed inside final furlong,
kept on
Wednesday 14th July Evening
Each Way Value:
8.10 Worcester 2. All Thyne Greats 0.2pt e/w (9/1 StanJames*, 17/2
Betinternet*, 8/1 Elsewhere)
Not one to get carried away with but there has to be each way value in
here somewhere with Bobble Hat Bob at 4/11.
I don't normally like considering Point to Point form but in the context
of this motley crew it has to be taken into account.
So All Thyne Greats is the each way pick but only to small stakes.
Result 5th, All Thyne Greats led until ridden approaching 3 out,
weakened after next, mistake and hampere
Thursday 15th July
Each Way Value:
Another close 2nd yesterday which isn't really helping us much, just have
to be patient.
2.00 Cartmel 7. Osbaldeston 0.2pt e/w (11/1 Betinternet* or 10/1
Bet365*/WillHill*)
On form shown so far this looks a match between the top two, however the
each way value is elsewhere.
Most of these are pretty exposed and although Osbaldeston wouldn't be my
most confident selection, he has shown obvious improvement with each run,
looks the only really unexposed one in this and is value at 10s or above.
4.00 Hamilton 8. Opening Nite 0.2pt e/w (22/1 Betinternet* or 20/1
StanJames*)
This is another race which offers obvious each way value with it being 8
runners with the favourite at 4/6, but isn't one ot get carried away with
as there are lots with place chances. With that in mind I'm keeping stakes
small and going for what I believe looks the best value from around 5 that
have shown ability. Opening Nite was a 4 length 4th on debut at Redcar,
just behind a 74 rated horse. He wasn't given a particulary hard time, come
off the pace and looks to have impovement in him. If showing normal
improvement for the run and also for the extra 1f then he could be
thereabouts. The tissue on this was 13/2 however they are quite keen to lay
this at big prices on Betfair. But who knows who these people are.
Interestingly Ladbrokes ducked it going only 10/1
Result PU, Osbaldeston mid-division, not fluent 7th, effort approaching 3 out,
no impression, pulled up before last
5th, Opening Night dwelt, soon tracked leaders, ridden 3f out,
weakened 2f out
Friday 16th July
Each Way Value:
6.35 Pontefract 4. El Viento 0.8pt e/w (7/2 Bet365*/StanJames*/Totesport*)
This one looked a winner waiting to happen last time out when a close 2nd
after losing ground mid race over 5f at Beverley.
He finished in front of a next time out winner that day further franking
the form and the extra 1f should hopefully negate any trouble in running
this time. Plus the Fahey 2yos are having a fine season. Theres mainly
newcomers outside of the top two int he market here to fear and with 11
runners there is the danger of something lurking in there which is what
stops this being a larger stake. 3lb Claimer Barry McHugh takes the ride on
this one which might look a concern but he actually has a 3/12 25% strike
rate on Richard Fahey 2yo's.
Result 9th, chased leaders, lost place over 4f out, ridden and weakened over 2f out
Saturday 17th July
Each Way Value:
7.20 Lingfield 8. Hard Bargain 0.4pt e/w (7/1 Bet365*/Sky/Sportingbet)
The downside to this race is that there are 14 runners. The positives are
many however. This one was 3rd of 18 on debut only
losing out very narrowly to two more experienced rivals and finishing
ahead of at least one future winner. Of the others Silken Thoughts and
Midnight Rider have shown some form and could improve, and the favourite
had a fair debut in a strong race at Newmarket but will have to improve to
justify a price so short. You'd struggle to make a case for the others and
at 7/1 Hard Bargain looks a decent price for a horse that judged on his
debut should be winning before long.
Result 6th mid-division, ridden and one pace final 2f
4.05 Newmarket 2. City Ground
Very Hard to see this one out of the top 3 here with good placed efforts
all of his three starts to date. You can easily write off most of this
field and he looks closely macthed to favourite Soviet Secret but is the
better value.
4.10 Market Rasen 1. Sir Frank
This is about as close to a match race as you are likely to see as you'd
really have to clutch at straws to give anything outside the top 2 a shout.
Sir Frank can be partly forgiven his defeat last time out as the
trip/track/penalty conspired against him, his rival Russian George has a
penalty for the first time today.
result 1st sir frank led, driven and headed flat,
rallied to regain lead towards finish
4th city ground tracked leaders, effort over 1f out, kept on one pace final furlong
0.3pt each way double on both the above. at 11/4 and 6/4 with Totesport or
Betfred.
Sunday 18th July
Each Way Value:
Another disappointing day yesterday unfortunately.
No selections today.
Starting Bank 1,000
Bank end of day 72 1,305
Bank end of day 79 1,187
Points Profit/loss +7.53
Not the best of weeks lets see what happens in the last 5 days of the 84 day review
[click here to see Winning Racing Tips…]
Regards
Danny
